Early NFL bets for Week 14
We had some bangers in Week 13, as it turned out to be the best slate of the season thus far. Hopefully Week 14 can provide a nice encore, though there aren’t a ton of games dripping with intrigue like what we saw this past week. Furthermore, a rash of injuries hit the league on Sunday, knocking out several key players and leaving others with a cloudy outlook for the upcoming round of games.
Still, there are some early-week line values to be had and some attractive bets to make before the lines get on the move.
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Here are some early NFL bets to consider for Week 14:
Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 43) at Los Angeles Rams
You don’t get rich laying road numbers on a short week, but the Raiders are rolling right now and the Rams are tumbling down a long hill with no signs of stopping. Las Vegas takes some positive feelings to SoFi Stadium here after a huge game from Davante Adams and a 27-20 win over the Chargers that kept the team alive for a playoff spot. The Rams aren’t really alive for much of anything and don’t even have their first-round pick. That belongs to the surging Lions.
The final score suggests that the Rams were competitive against the Seahawks, but 27-23 is very misleading. Seattle had a 6.7 to 5.1 edge in yards per play and outgained LA by 119 yards. The Rams went 10 plays and 77 yards on their scripted drive to open the game and only managed 242 yards over the next 53 plays (4.57 YPP). They were actually shockingly good on the ground for one of the few times this season, but John Wolford was only 14-of-26 for 178 yards with two picks.
A similar story can be found with the Chargers and Raiders game. The Raiders had 6.8 yards per play to 5.2 for the Chargers. The Chargers had a pick six in the first quarter to make the game look a lot more interesting. Las Vegas even buckled down in the red zone, holding the Chargers to zero touchdowns in three attempts.
The spot isn’t great for the Raiders, but the Rams put a lot into trying to beat a division foe and failed, guaranteeing the first losing season of Sean McVay’s head coaching career.
Pick: Raiders -6
Minnesota Vikings (-1, 53) at Detroit Lions
This could be a “last team with the ball wins” sort of game, but points should definitely be expected at Ford Field. The Lions hung a 40-burger on the Jaguars in Week 13 and left points on the field with four Michael Badgley field goals. Detroit racked up 5.9 yards per play and continued to show a lot of offensive prowess indoors. With four more touchdowns on Sunday, the Lions have scored 27 offensive touchdowns in their seven games at home. They have 17 passing touchdowns in the dome against just two passing touchdowns on the road.
Their totals are being priced based on the full body of work, but this is a dramatically different offense in the Motor City. The Vikings got an awful game from Kirk Cousins against the Jets, but the Jets are one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Lions are absolutely not. Detroit’s seven home games have averaged just shy of 60 points. They held Jacksonville to one touchdown, but have still allowed 22 TDs in the seven home games.
Stops should be at a minimum in this one and I would expect the total to go up, even as one of the higher totals of the NFL season.
Pick: Over 53
New England Patriots (-1.5, 44) at Arizona Cardinals
The Patriots have had a long time to sit and stew about what happened against the Bills last week, but there seems to be a pretty big overreaction to what happened in that game. Buffalo is a really good team and the Super Bowl favorite for a reason. The Cardinals are not a really good team, are not in the Super Bowl discussion and do not really profile as a team that would use the bye week to its advantage.
As much as the Patriots have struggled at times, we still have a big coaching mismatch here between Bill Belichick and Kliff Kingsbury. The extra rest for the Patriots neutralizes the bye week for Arizona and also the long travel for New England. The Patriots had 7.4 yards per play against the Vikings two weeks ago and outgained Minnesota by two full yards per play. They lost 33-26, but deserved a better fate in that one. They didn’t against the Bills, but this is a big step down in class and the line says a lot with the Patriots a clear road favorite.
Pick: Patriots -1.5
