Thanksgiving Packers vs. Lions Week 12 odds and predictions
It's Thanksgiving time and we're getting some great Week 12 NFL matchups for it. The first game features the Detroit Lions hosting the Green Bay Packers at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Packers are coming off a nice win over the Los Angeles Chargers last game, while the Lions pulled off an improbable comeback win over the Chicago Bears. So, both of these teams are coming into this thing with some momentum. That should make this divisional matchup even more enticing. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Packers vs. Lions preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Packers vs. Lions
Date: Thursday, November 23
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
Packers vs. Lions Spread
It isn’t Thanksgiving unless you’re eating an obscene amount of food and watching the Lions. However, it is interesting that the Lions will be expected to pick up a Turkey Day victory this year. Green Bay has won two of its last three games and is playing much better football in recent weeks, but the Lions blew out the Packers when the two met at Lambeau Field earlier in the season. And Detroit comes into this game after having won three games in a row, which is why we’re seeing the Lions favored by nearly a touchdown.
Heading into this week, the Lions are fifth in the league in Offensive DVOA and 10th in Defensive DVOA. Meanwhile, the Packers are 19th in Offensive DVOA and 24th in Defensive DVOA. So, Detroit has a pretty significant edge on both sides of the ball based on what we’ve seen thus far. And there really isn’t much to be excited about if you’re looking to bet the Packers here.
Green Bay’s rushing defense is still a big problem, as the team gave up 205 yards on the ground in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago. So, Detroit should be able to find some success with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in this game. The two combined to rush for 161 yards when these teams met last time, and I can see them approaching that mark again. That’ll then make life rather easy on Jared Goff, who is at his best when opponents are forced to overplay against the run.
I also don’t believe in Jordan Love’s ability to go out and keep his team in this game. Love still has a miserable Completion Percentage Over Expected, as he’s at -3.5% right now. That puts him at 35th out of the 48 quarterbacks that have started games this year. He’s now facing a Lions team that is solid against the pass, ranking 12th in DVOA in that regard. And being without Aaron Jones wouldn't make matters any easier. Jones is dynamic as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
It’s also worth noting that Detroit is 11-3 against the spread in divisional games under Dan Campbell. He gets his team up for the big ones, which isn’t surprising considering the amount of coffee that’s running through his veins.
Packers vs. Lions Total
The last time these two teams played, the Lions jumped out to an early lead. They were moving the ball with ease and the Packers had no answer for them. Then, Green Bay started to find some offense once the Detroit defense let up a bit. And overall, I can see this one looking very similar. But even if it’s somewhat close, I’d expect a high-scoring game out of these two.
The Lions are coming off a game in which they gave up 28 points to the Bears, and they let the Chargers score 38 points two weeks ago. So, it’s not like this defense has been perfect. So, even if I’m not high on Love, the Packers should be able to find some success here. That’ll make it hard for this not to go Over, as Detroit will put up points in this matchup.
The Over is also 6-4 when the Packers have played against teams with win percentages of 75.0% or higher under Mike LaFleur. And it’s 9-4 in the 13 games the Lions have played as favorites under Campbell.
Packers vs. Lions Player Props
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David Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer
The last time these teams played, Montgomery rushed 32 times for 121 yards and three touchdowns. Montgomery likely won’t get that type of workload again here, as Gibbs has earned more work over the last few weeks. But I still think Montgomery will find the end zone. In fact, Montgomery has scored in back-to-back games since returning from injury — even though he got just 12 carries in both of those games. Detroit loves what it has in Gibbs, but Montgomery’s between-the-tackles ability will never be ignored — especially near the end zone.
Packers vs. Lions Prediction
This is a bit more than I’d like to be laying in a divisional game, so I’m not personally playing Detroit here. But my favorite bet in this game would be laying the points with the Lions. I just think it’s more likely this game turns into a blowout than a one-possession game. Detroit is better in every aspect of the game and should have a significant home-field advantage.
Lean: Lions -7.5
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