Thanksgiving NFL Week 12: Commanders vs. Cowboys picks, predictions and player props

By Zachary Cohen  ( Senior Editor) 

November 22, 2023 03:16 PM

Thanksgiving Commanders vs. Cowboys Week 12 odds and predictions

It's Thanksgiving time and we're getting some great Week 12 NFL matchups for it. The second game features the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Texas. The Commanders got beat up on by the New York Giants last week, so they're in desperate need of a bounce back performance. But the Cowboys have won four of their last five after last week's win over the Carolina Panthers. So, this isn't a great matchup for Washington. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Commanders vs. Cowboys preview, picks and player props. 

MORE: Check out our Week 12 NFL Bet Hub for all of this week's best bets and content

How To Watch Commanders vs. Cowboys

Date: Thursday, November 23

Time: 4:30 p.m. ET

Channel: CBS

Commanders vs. Cowboys Spread

The Commanders are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Giants, as they made Tommy DeVito look like Tommy Brady. DeVito threw for 246 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in that game, and Saquon Barkley also went wild for New York. Barkley rushed 14 times for 83 yards and caught four passes for 57 yards and two scores. That said, Washington is in trouble if the team doesn’t figure things out in a hurry. However, I will note that letdown games happen in the NFL. Everybody on the planet expected the Commanders to win that game, so it’s entirely possible they didn’t take the game as seriously as they needed to. And I wouldn’t suggest getting too low on Washington because of that one performance. 

This Washington team is 10th in the league in Defensive DVOA against the run, so the Commanders likely won’t get shredded by Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle on the ground. The question is whether Washington’s secondary can hold up. Over the last four weeks, Dak Prescott has thrown for an average of 317.8 yards per game, despite having only thrown for 189 yards last week. Prescott has also thrown for 13 touchdowns and only two picks in that span, so he’s really in a nice groove as a passer. But I do think it’s hard to win by double digits in this league, and that’s especially true when facing a divisional opponent. And the Commanders just so happen to be 2-0-1 in the three games in which they’ve been underdogs of 10 or more points under Ron Rivera. 

I also think that the Commanders will find some success through the air in this game, even though the Cowboys are an elite team defensively. Sam Howell is coming off a miserable performance last week, as he finished the game with three interceptions and a passer rating of 62.7. But in every game in which Howell has finished with a passer rating of 80.0 or lower, he has responded with one of at least 98.6. He seems to do a very good job of going back to the drawing board and figuring out how to improve upon weak performances.

Commanders vs. Cowboys Total 

Considering I think Howell will find some success through the air in this game, it shouldn’t be all that surprising that I think this will turn into a high-scoring game. Washington has gone Over the total in three of its last four games, with the opponent’s point total being responsible in all of those games. So, it’s hard to imagine Dallas not hanging a big number on the board. I just happen to think Washington will do so as well, which is why I’m expecting a Commanders cover and a high-scoring affair. 

The Over also happens to be 4-1 in the five games the Commanders have played as underdogs of 7.5 to 14 points under Rivera. So, when they’re expected to get blown out, their games lean higher in scoring. The Over is also 17-7 in the 24 games Dallas has played as a home favorite under Mike McCarthy.

Commanders vs. Cowboys Player Props

Parlay Calculator | Player Prop Analyzer

Jake Ferguson Anytime TD Scorer

CeeDee Lamb has been Prescott’s guy over the last couple of weeks, as he has found the end zone in three of the last four games — with four total touchdowns. However, the Commanders are going to do everything they can to try and take him out of this one. And Washington is also solid against the run. So, I can see the Cowboys dialing up a look or two to Ferguson in the red zone, especially in the play action game. Ferguson had caught a touchdown in three straight games before failing to find the end zone last game. Prescott trusts him in that area of the field and I like him to deliver at nearly 2-1 odds. 

Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction

I do think the Commanders will keep this thing a little closer than expected, but I feel better about going with the Over. This can easily play out with Dallas jumping out to an early lead and Washington throwing to get its way back into it. That’s a good recipe for an Over, especially with the Cowboys potential for a defensive touchdown.

Lean: Over 48.5

Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Commanders vs. Cowboys! 

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