Top NFL Survivor picks for Week 15
Unless you’ve managed to stick to your season-long blueprint or just happen to have some of the NFL’s top teams left, there are a lot of gambles taking place going forward for those still alive in Survivor pools. This will be the last week for our Survivor article, since the pick you make is simply predicated on the teams that you still have available and whether or not it is a good matchup.
Of course, it looked like the Seahawks had a great matchup against the Panthers last week and they probably knocked out a good chunk of those remaining in the field. The Cowboys were the biggest favorite of the NFL season to date and needed a 95-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes of the game just to beat the Texans. Godspeed to anybody still in the running for the ultimate prize.
See the latest NFL betting odds and NFL betting splits.
GAMES TO CONSIDER
I’m assuming that nobody has the Chiefs left by this point, unless there was some sort of extra incentive for using them late in the year. They’re huge favorites over the Texans and it sure felt like that was Houston’s last stand last week, as they put a ton into that close loss to Dallas. They’re not a lock for the first overall pick yet, but they’re pretty close and may also get another top-10 pick if Cleveland keeps struggling.
Anyway, the Chiefs need to keep banking wins in hopes of holding their grasp on a bye in the Wild Card Round, as they’ll either need to finish first or second in the AFC. Dallas’s near-miss against Houston should keep the Chiefs focused this week to take care of business in a complete mismatch.
The Packers might actually be a team that some entrants still have available. After starting the season 3-1, the Packers have gone just 2-7. There hasn’t been a ton of confidence in Green Bay or Aaron Rodgers as this season has gone along, but this sure looks like the spot to use them if you’ve got them. Sure, Baker Mayfield has more time to dig into the playbook, but he’s still short on weapons and the Rams will head outside to Lambeau Field for Monday Night Football.
The early forecast for Dec. 19 has no precipitation, but does have temperatures sitting around 15-20 during the game. As of now, the winds aren’t forecasted to be as bad as surrounding days, but it’s wintertime and anything can change. Despite Baker’s heroics last week, the Rams have consistently been one of the worst teams in the NFL this season on offense and the defense has been dropping in efficiency metrics against the pass.
THE PICK
This one is obviously risky as a divisional matchup with a relatively low spread, but I tried to focus on a team that most entries likely have waiting in the wings. Regression has hit the Giants like a ton of bricks. After starting the season 7-2, the Giants are 0-3-1 over the last four games, with that tie coming against Washington in Week 13. Washington outgained New York by 95 yards in that one and was a road favorite of 2.5 points.
The Commanders are coming off of the bye, so they haven’t played since that tie. For the season, this is a top-10 defense in EPA/play and a top-five defense against the run. The Giants are actually 29th in EPA/play on defense. The tie from two weeks ago seems pretty fortunate when comparing the teams side-by-side and with Washington having a lot of time to dissect that first meeting.