Super Bowl LVII odds: Should strength of schedule matter in your handicap?

By Adam Burke  ( 

February 4, 2023 07:53 PM

Chiefs played much tougher schedule per Jeff Sagarin than Eagles

The narrative is already off and running about the easy path that the Philadelphia Eagles had to Super Bowl LVII with the New York Giants and the San Francisco 49ers with no quarterback en route to the matchup in Glendale, Ariz. against the Kansas City Chiefs. But, what if it’s more than just a narrative? What if there is something to the entire body of work for Philadelphia, not just facing a Giants team they had already beaten twice and a Josh Johnson-led Niners bunch?

Follow The Money host Mitch Moss tweeted about the strength of schedule (SOS) difference between the Eagles and Chiefs using the metrics of Jeff Sagarin. His findings - along with past Super Bowl results - are interesting to say the least.



Super Bowl LVII odds

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 49.5)

Past Super Bowl history by strength of schedule dating back to 2000

(strength of schedule per Jeff Sagarin unless noted)

  • Super Bowl LVII (2023) - Chiefs (16), Eagles (31)
  • Super Bowl LVI (2022) - Rams (5), Bengals (22)
  • Super Bowl LV (2021) - Buccaneers (1), Chiefs (6) - per TeamRankings*
  • Super Bowl LIV (2020) - 49ers (7), Chiefs (10)
  • Super Bowl LIII (2019) - Rams (14), Patriots (23)
  • Super Bowl LII (2018) - Eagles (13), Patriots (24)
  • Super Bowl LI (2017) - Falcons (9), Patriots (32)
  • Super Bowl 50 (2016) - Broncos (5), Panthers (25)
  • Super Bowl XLIX (2015) - Patriots (4), Seahawks (9)
  • Super Bowl XLVIII (2014) - Seahawks (7), Broncos (16)
  • Super Bowl XLVII (2013) - 49ers (3), Ravens (13)
  • Super Bowl XLVI (2012) - Giants (1), Patriots (13)
  • Super Bowl XLV (2011) - Packers (7), Steelers (10)
  • Super Bowl XLIV (2010) - Colts (11), Saints (15)
  • Super Bowl XLIII (2009) - Steelers (4), Cardinals (16)
  • Super Bowl XLII (2008) - Giants (2), Patriots (19)
  • Super Bowl XLI (2007) - Colts (5), Bears (24)
  • Super Bowl XL (2006) - Steelers (4), Seahawks (31)
  • Super Bowl XXXIX (2005) - Patriots (7), Eagles (19)
  • Super Bowl XXXVIII (2004) - Patriots (10), Panthers (22) - per TeamRankings*
  • Super Bowl XXXVII (2003) - Raiders (1), Buccaneers (12)
  • Super Bowl XXXVI (2002) - Rams (15), Patriots (20)
  • Super Bowl XXXV (2001) - Ravens (21), Giants (23)
  • Super Bowl XXXIV (2000) - Titans (22), Rams (31)

In 13 games with a SOS difference of 10 or more spots, the team that played the better schedule is 10-3 straight up and 8-5 ATS, with one of those losses coming when the Patriots erased a 28-3 deficit against the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. New England played the league’s lowest SOS that season and dug a huge hole, but crawled out of it to win in the only Super Bowl that has gone to overtime.

The only other team to play a schedule as weak or weaker than the 2022 Eagles is the 2005 Seahawks, who lost 21-10 to the Steelers in Super Bowl XL.

It may be worth noting that of those 10 winners, nine of them played a top-10 strength of schedule and seven of them played a top-five schedule. The Chiefs do not fit that mold for Super Bowl LVII, as their SOS ranks 16th.

For more past Super Bowl history and betting tips, check out our Intro to the Big Game Betting Guide.

Patrick Mahomes vs. the Eagles

In a lot of ways, strength of schedule is a metric that can be used to evaluate the level of opposing quarterbacks that a team has faced. It’s safe to say that Mahomes is a different animal and many would agree the best quarterback in the NFL.

Here’s the list of the quarterbacks that the Eagles faced this season:

  • Jared Goff
  • Kirk Cousins (in primetime on MNF)
  • Carson Wentz
  • Trevor Lawrence (bad weather)
  • Kyler Murray
  • Cooper Rush
  • Kenny Pickett
  • Davis Mills
  • Taylor Heinicke
  • Matt Ryan
  • Aaron Rodgers
  • Ryan Tannehill & Malik Willis
  • Daniel Jones (x2)
  • Justin Fields
  • Dak Prescott
  • Andy Dalton
  • Davis Webb
  • Brock Purdy & Josh Johnson

There aren’t a lot of mobile quarterbacks on that list for one of the NFL’s all-time leading defenses from a sack standpoint, but Mahomes is compromised with the ankle injury. This is just one of many handicapping angles and talking points as we head into Super Bowl LVII and a shout-out to our guy Mitch Moss for bringing it up.

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