Comparing Super Bowl LVII player prop odds to regular season averages

February 1, 2023

Popular Chiefs and Eagles player prop bets for Super Bowl

A lot of things change over the course of a season. Injuries happen. Young players get more reps as they get deeper into the playbook. Coaches find mismatches from game to game and week to week. Therefore, this exercise will hardly be an exact science, but I’m just presenting it for informational purposes to see if anything stands out in a big way.

Odds are only from DraftKings Sportsbook. Props not lined at DK may be lined elsewhere, so season averages are included for those props.

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Be sure to check out VSiN’s NFL Player Prop Analyzer before making your wagers as well.

Quarterback Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

Passing yards: Over/under 287.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 308.8 yards

Pass attempts: Over/under 39.5 (+100/-130)
Regular season average: 38.1 attempts

In games where the Chiefs ran at least 58 offensive plays, Mahomes went over this line in 12 of 14 games. That may be the handicap with his passing yards and attempts. Will the Chiefs be able to sustain drives and stay on the field? Can they keep the Eagles pass rush at bay for Mahomes to complete passes? His five lowest yardage outputs this season came in games where the Chiefs simply didn’t run a lot of plays.

Rushing yards: Over/under 20.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 21.1 yards

Shade to the under makes sense here with both the line and the vig given that Mahomes is compromised with the bum ankle. He’s also gone over this total just twice since Week 12. He hasn’t had more than five rushing attempts in a game since Week 10.

Jalen Hurts

Passing yards: Over/under 245.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 246.7 yards

Pass attempts: Over/under 32.5 (-105/-125)
Regular season average: 30.7 attempts

This one is particularly interesting because of the late-season injury and the two blowout wins in the playoffs. Hurts had six of his eight highest outputs by passing yards in the first nine weeks of the season. Over his final seven regular season games, Hurts only averaged 237 passing yards per game. In the two playoff games, Hurts has combined for just 275 passing yards, but the Eagles won those games by a combined score of 69-14.

He’s only gone over this number twice since Week 8. The Chiefs represent a big step up in class from most of Philadelphia’s opponents and a closer game may force him to throw more often, but the Eagles have relied heavily on the running game for quite some time now.

Rushing yards: Over/under 49.5 (-110/-120)
Regular season average: 50.7

Not much of a change from his season average here either. Hurts has 73 rushing yards in the two playoff games, failing to hit 40 in both games. However, he’s had some huge games with 157 rushing yards in Week 12 against Green Bay and 90 yards in the season opener against the Lions.

He’s just generally been less effective as a rusher since coming back from injury with 86 yards on 29 attempts. Even in Week 15 against the Bears, he had 61 rushing yards, but it took 17 carries. How much emphasis will the Chiefs put on containing him? That’s the question we all need to answer.

Running Back Player Props

Isiah Pacheco

Rushing yards: Over/under 49.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 48.8 yards

Rush attempts: Over/under 11.5 (-120/-110)
Regular season average: 10 attempts

Receptions: N/A
Regular season average: 0.8 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 14.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 7.6 yards

Pacheco averaged 14 rush attempts per game from Week 10 through the end of the regular season, as he took over as the feature back. In that span, he averaged 55.8 yards per game. His two playoff games have been wildly different, as he had 12 carries for 95 yards against the Jaguars, but just 26 yards on 10 attempts against the Bengals. Interestingly, that was Pacheco’s breakout game as a receiver with five catches for 59 yards. He had six targets in that one game after having 14 in his 17 regular season games.

Jerick McKinnon

Rushing yards: Over/under 22.5 (-105/-125)
Regular season average: 17.1 yards

Rush attempts: N/A
Regular season average: 4.2 attempts

Receptions: Over/under 3.5 (+120/-150)
Regular season average: 3.3 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 22.5 (-110/-120)
Regular season average: 30.1 yards

McKinnon played in all 17 games, but did not start any of them. He only had double-digit carries in one regular season game and then again in the Divisional Round against the Jaguars when Mahomes was first injured with the high ankle sprain. He only had 25 yards on those 11 carries against Jacksonville. Outside of that game against Jacksonville, McKinnon has only had more than 50% of the snaps twice since Week 11.

McKinnon only had 13 catches on 17 targets in the first seven weeks of the season, but had 43 catches on 54 targets over his last 10 games, the majority of those without Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Miles Sanders

Rushing yards: Over/under 58.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 74.6 yards

Rush attempts: Over/under 13.5 (+100/-130)
Regular season average: 15.2 attempts

Receptions: Over/under 1.5 (+135/-165)
Regular season average: 1.2 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 4.5 (-125/-105)
Regular season average: 4.6 yards

Sanders had 17 carries for 90 yards against the Giants and then 11 carries for 42 yards against the 49ers. The Eagles only used him on 40% of the offensive snaps in Weeks 17 and 18, so it does seem like they were trying to conserve some energy and some reps heading into the playoffs. They’ve given a lot of opportunities to Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott while relying on the ground game. In the Super Bowl, with nothing to hold back, you wonder if maybe Sanders is out there a lot more often. Up until Week 17, he had played at least 51% of the snaps in every game.

From a receiving standpoint, Sanders has three catches for -4 yards in his last six games. It might only take one catch for him to get over 4.5, so this could be an attractive prop. He has had at least six receiving yards in eight of his 19 games to this point.

Kenneth Gainwell

Rushing yards: Over/under 18.5 (+110/-140)
Regular season average: 14.1 yards

Rush attempts: N/A
Regular season average: 3.1 attempts

Receptions: Over/under 1.5 (-150/+120)
Regular season average: 1.4 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 11.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 9.9 yards

You’re likely to find Gainwell rushing props soon or if you shop around at other sportsbooks. His playoff usage and production have both been rather surprising. He had 12 carries for 112 yards against a worn-out Giants defense in the Divisional Round and 14 carries for 48 yards against the 49ers. Gainwell had previously topped out at eight carries and 39 yards (both Week 12).

From a receiving standpoint, Gainwell went over this yardage total six times and this receptions total seven times, but most of those games were in the second half of the season. He has three catches for 35 yards in the postseason.

Boston Scott

Rushing yards: Over/under 7.5 (-110/-120)
Regular season average: 14.5

Rush attempts: N/A
Regular season average: 3.6 attempts

Receptions: N/A
Regular season average: 0.3 catches

Receiving yards: N/A
Regular season average: 1.0 yards

Plenty of talk lately about Scott and his three straight games with touchdowns. He scored in Week 1 and then didn’t score again until Week 14 against the Giants, who might as well give him a 10-year, $200 million contract at this point.

I think this will be a particularly polarizing player when it comes to props. Scott has 107 rushing yards on 21 carries in the last three games, but his touches were inconsistent throughout the regular season. As mentioned with Gainwell, it is tough to evaluate the last two games because of the game state. Sanders has to be the go-to guy in a close game, but the Eagles have found success rotating their backs. His three snap shares of 30% or higher in the last four games are the only ones he has this season. How big of a factor will he be?

Wide Receiver / Tight End Player Props

Travis Kelce

Receptions: Over/under 6.5 (-150/+120)
Regular season average: 6.5 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 79.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 78.7 yards

Explosive plays have been a bit hard to come by in the postseason for Kelce who had 14 catches on 17 targets against the Jaguars for 98 yards and then seven catches on eight targets for 78 yards against the Bengals. His longest catch was only 16 yards in the AFC Championship Game.

The 49ers limited him to six catches for 43 yards in Super Bowl LIV. He had 10 catches on 15 targets for 133 yards in Super Bowl LV, but that was a game that the Chiefs trailed throughout and ultimately lost 31-9. Mahomes threw 49 times in that game. He had 110 catches on 152 targets in the regular season, with 42 more grabs and 51 more targets than any other Chiefs player.

Unlike some of the other players here, he was consistently busy throughout the season.

A.J. Brown

Receptions: Over/under 5.5 (+105/-135)
Regular season average: 5.2 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 72.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 88 yards

I know that Brown has been dealing with some ailments, but the last two games really seemed to overshadow how much of a tear he was on. He only has seven catches for 50 yards on 14 targets in the last two games. Is that a commentary on Brown’s ability to create separation? Hurts’ ability to get him the ball? A combination of both? The blowout game state?

In the last six games of the regular season, Brown had 665 yards (110.8 ypg) on 35 receptions. He has eight games with 95 or more yards and five of them were from Week 13 to Week 18. I think Brown is a really interesting player for the Super Bowl.

Dallas Goedert

Receptions: Over/under 4.5 (-110/-120)
Regular season average: 4.6 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 45.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 58.5 yards

Goedert has 10 catches on 11 targets for 81 yards in the two playoff games. Given that he returned from injury in Week 16 to play two games with Gardner Minshew before Hurts came back from injury, it isn’t a big surprise to see his production a little bit scattered. He has 16 catches in three games with Hurts, so that would put him on pace to go over his receptions here.

In the first 10 weeks, Goedert had 43 catches over nine games for 544 yards. It does feel like this is one that could go either way depending on what the Chiefs prioritize defensively. Do they want to avoid single coverage on Brown and Smith with some safety help? Can Goedert get some mismatches against linebackers? In 14 games, he’s gone over 45.5 yards in nine of them and had 45 yards in another game, so this will be another polarizing one.

DeVonta Smith

Receptions: Over/under 5.5 (+125/-155)
Regular season average: 5.6 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 62.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 70.4 yards

Smith led the Eagles in receptions with 95, seven more than Brown, but finished 300 yards behind his teammate. Two of his five 100-yard games came with Minshew in Weeks 16 and 17. His two playoff games look very different with six catches for 61 yards on 10 targets against the Giants and then only two catches for 36 yards on three targets against the 49ers. Again, it’s hard to evaluate based on those two games.

Up until the NFC Championship Game, Smith had at least eight targets in 10 straight games, with six or more catches in six of those games.

Quez Watkins

Receptions: Over/under 1.5 (+115/-145)
Regular season average: 1.9 catches

Receiving yards: Over/under 13.5 (-115/-115)
Regular season average: 20.8 yards

Seven games with zero receiving yards really did a number on the season averages for Watkins. However, he also had five more games with fewer than 20 yards. He had one target between the two playoff games. He’s played at least 22 snaps in every game and at least 51% of the snaps in all but four games. That means he’ll be on the field a fair amount.

Does that mean he’ll be targeted? His games with the biggest snap share were the shootouts against the Packers in Week 12 and against the Cowboys in Week 16.