SNF Chiefs vs. Jets Week 4 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Sunday Night Football game. In Week 4, that game features the New York Jets hosting the Kansas City Chiefs at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets have been abysmal offensively after losing Aaron Rodgers for the season, but they'll be hoping their defense can keep them in this game against the defending Super Bowl champions. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Chiefs vs. Jets preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Chiefs vs. Jets
Date: Sunday, October 1
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Chiefs vs. Jets Spread
It’s the QB, hi, Zach Wilson’s the problem, the QB. Sorry, I had to. Anyway, I don’t actually believe Wilson is the only person at fault in New York. But Wilson is the 32nd ranked PFF quarterback out of the 34 that have started games this season. And his traditional numbers tell just as bad of a story, as he has thrown for just 467 yards with only two touchdowns and a miserable four interceptions. Wilson has also completed just 52.4% of his passes, and he just generally looks uncomfortable whenever he drops back. And to make matters worse, the Jets coaching staff doesn’t seem to have any faith in him. This offense has become one of the most predictable ones in the league, with New York running as often as possible and only dropping back to pass in situations in which it’s absolutely necessary.
Not only is Wilson not capable of making the big throws required on third downs, but his receivers aren’t doing him any favors. Outside of Garrett Wilson, the Jets just don’t seem to have anybody that can create any separation. The result of all of this is a Jets offense that is averaging just 225.0 total yards per game, which is the fewest in the league. New York’s 14.0 points per game is also the lowest mark in football. Kansas City also happens to have the luxury of throwing Trent McDuffie, the highest graded PFF corner in football, on the Jets top wideout.
None of that is a good sign heading into a meeting with a Chiefs team that has Patrick Mahomes at the quarterback position — and Swift’s boyfriend, Travis Kelce, who happens to be one of the greatest tight ends of all time. The Jets do have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, even if the team is just 17th in Defensive DVOA through three games. So, it isn’t hard to envision New York doing a decent job of keeping the Kansas City offense in check. But the reality is that it’s nearly impossible to completely keep a Mahomes-led offense down. And will the Jets defense continue to fight if they go down early and the offense isn’t providing any help? I can see this being a game that is a little closer than expected early, but Kansas City will eventually pull away.
It's also worth noting that the Chiefs are 12-3 against the spread after having allowed 14 or fewer points in back-to-back games since Andy Reid became the team’s head coach. That is because this team is nearly impossible to beat when it has a good defense. And they certainly have that, as they’re ninth in the league in Defensive DVOA thus far. Things have looked good on that side of the ball since Chris Jones came back, and this defense could feast on New York’s offense. The Chiefs are also 18-9 ATS in road games against teams with losing records under Reid.
Chiefs vs. Jets Total
I think the Jets have the ability to make the Chiefs offense work extremely hard early in this game. But as I mentioned earlier, I think that will only last a quarter or two. There are already rumblings about the New York defense being extremely upset with the team’s quarterback play, and it’s hard to blame any of the players for that. The Jets have a defense that is keeping the team in games, but the offense isn’t doing anything to go out and win them. At some point, that’s going to rear its head and you’re going to see a team that is lacking in energy on both sides of the ball. And I just wouldn’t be surprised if it happens on Sunday, as they’re playing the best quarterback in the league. Mahomes has the ability to suck the energy out of the building.
Considering this total is so low, it’s just hard not to like the Over with the Chiefs being in the game. I’m not counting on the Jets helping out too much with the number, but if the team can somehow score 14-17 points then this should cash pretty easily. For as bad as Wilson is, it does feel reasonable to expect something in that range, too. New York hasn’t run the ball very effectively recently, but Breece Hall is fully capable of breaking off a big run or two. That would change things with the total instantly.
It's also hard not to draw some small similarities between the Jets and the Chicago Bears. And Kansas City just pounded Chicago, 41-10. Would it be all that surprising if this game looks a lot like that one? I’m expecting something like 31-14. But no matter what it ends up being, I think 41 is too low.
Chiefs vs. Jets Player Props
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Zach Wilson Over 0.5 Interceptions
It’s going to be a little juicy to play the Over on Wilson’s interception total, but it’s not overwhelming or anything. And overall, I just can’t imagine this doesn’t hit. Kansas City only has one interception this season, but it genuinely feels like the team is due — especially considering the talent the Chiefs have in the secondary. And Wilson is playing under so much pressure in this game that it should force him to break at some point. It’s also worth noting that there’s a chance the Chiefs go up big in this one, forcing the Jets to throw the ball more often than they want to. That’s exactly what happened when New York faced the Dallas Cowboys and that was a game in which Wilson had three interceptions.
Chiefs vs. Jets Prediction
This game really reminds me of the meeting between the San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. There’s just a massive gap in the way the two teams are executing, and the Chiefs aren’t the type of team to turn in a sloppy performance in a game like this. It might take a little while for Kansas City’s offense to heat up, but I anticipate it happening eventually. And New York doesn’t have the type of team that is capable of playing from behind.
Lean: Chiefs -8.5
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