Sunday NFL Wild Card Weekend Sharp Report

January 15, 2023 12:30 AM

1 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5, 43.5)

The Dolphins (9-8) are the 7-seed and just snapped a five-game losing skid with an 11-6 win over the Jets, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (13-3) are the 2-seed and have won seven straight games. Buffalo just brushed aside the Patriots 35-23, covering as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Bills listed as a 10.5-point home favorite. Early in the week, we saw the line fall from Bills -10.5 to -9 following reports that Tua Tagovailoa might play for the Dolphins. However, once Tagovailoa was ruled out and rookie Skylar Thompson was announced the new starter, we saw the Bills get steamed all the way up to -13.5. Buffalo is currently receiving 81% of bets and 89% of money, a combination of heavy support from both the public and wiseguys. Home favorites of -9 or more are 9-0 ATS in the Wild Card Round since 2005. Currently 70% of bets are taking the over, the total hasn't budged off the opener or 43.5. This signals some under liability. The Bills are 10-6 to the under. The Dolphins are 9-8 to the under. 


4:30 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 48) 

The Giants (9-7-1) are the 6-seed and went just 2-5-1 down the stretch. New York rested its starters in Week 18, falling to the Eagles 22-16 but covering as 17-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Vikings (13-4) are the 3-seed and have won three of their last four games. Minnesota just beat the Bears 29-13, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. This line opened with the Vikings listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is leaning with Minnesota at home. However, despite receiving 55% of bets the Vikings haven't budged off -3. In fact, many books are juicing up the Giants +3 to -115, signaling liability on New York plus the points and a possible fall down to 2.5. Wild Card Weekend dogs playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 11-1 ATS (92%) over the past five postseasons. Daniel Jones is 16-5 ATS as a road dog. The total has ticked up slightly from 47.5 to 48. The over is receiving 45% of bets but 55% of money, a sharp contrarian over bet discrepancy. Minnesota is 11-6 to the over, including 7-2 to the over at home. 


8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5, 40.5)

The Ravens (10-7) are the 6-seed and have lost two straight games. Baltimore just fell to the Bengals 27-16 in the regular season finale, covering as 11.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (12-4) are the 3-seed and have won eight straight games. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Early in the week, we saw the Bengals get steamed up to -9.5 following reports that both Lamar Jackson and backup Tyler Huntley could miss the game for Baltimore. But once Huntley was ruled probable, we saw some Ravens buyback hit the market, dropping the Bengals fall from -9.5 to -8.5. Currently 80% of bets but just 67% of money is laying the points with Cincinnati. The Bengals are in a prime teaser spot (-8.5 to -2.5), passing through multiple key numbers. We've also seen the total plummet from 43.5 to 40.5. This is notable because 66% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell, indicating some wiseguy money on a lower scoring game. Baltimore is 12-5 to the under. Cincinnati is 9-6-1 to the under. 

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