Sunday NFL Week 13 Sharp Report

December 4, 2022 12:24 AM
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Through twelve weeks of NFL action, underdogs and unders have continued to be a smart bet. Dogs are 100-77 ATS (57%), with "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more an impressive 66-40 ATS (62%). Meanwhile, unders have gone 103-78 (57%). Divisional unders are 34-20 (63%). When the total falls at least a half point, the under is 57-37 (61%). 

With these trends in mind, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's NFL Week 13 slate...

 

1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 44)

The Titans (7-4) just fell to the Bengals 20-16, failing to cover as a home pick'em play. On the flip side, the Eagles (10-1) have won two straight and just edged the Packers 40-33, covering as a 6.5-point home favorite. This line opened with the Eagles listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Respected money has grabbed the points with Tennessee, dropping the Titans from +6.5 to +4. Tennessee is only receiving 52% of bets but 62% of money, signifying public indecision but smart money in their favor. Dogs that failed to cover the previous week, like the Titans, are 41-28 ATS (59%) this season. Mike Vrabel is 4-2 ATS as a dog this season and 22-13 ATS (63%) in his career. Pros have also leaned under, dropping the total from 45 to 44. The Titans are 8-3 to the under this season. The Eagles are 7-4 to the over.

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 49.5)

The Chargers (6-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 25-24 win over the Cardinals but failed to cover as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Raiders (4-7) have won two straight games in overtime and just beat the Seahawks 40-34, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 3-point road favorite. Sharps have hammered the Raiders all week long, flipping Vegas from a 3-point dog to a 2.5-point favorite. This is especially notable because the Raiders are only receiving 33% of bets but 46% of money, signaling sharp reverse line movement in favor of Vegas as well as a wiseguy "low bets, higher dollars" bet discrepancy. Vegas is now -135 on the moneyline. We've also seen pro money hit the over, raising the total from 48 to 49.5. 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 52.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Chiefs (9-2) have won five straight games and just beat the Rams 26-10, covering as 15.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bengals (7-4) have won three straight and just edged the Titans 20-16, winning as a road pick'em play. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Kansas City. However, despite receiving 80% of bets we've seen Kansas City fall from -3 to -2. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already betting the Chiefs to begin with? Because pros have gotten down on the home dog Bengals, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Cincinnati is only receiving 20% of bets, making them the top contrarian play of the day. Joe Burrow is 14-7 ATS (67%) in his career as a dog. Cincinnati is also a prime teaser candidate +2 to +8, which passes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 51.5 to 52.5.

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