Through ten weeks of NFL regular season action, underdogs and unders have turned a consistent profit. Dogs are 86-62 ATS (58%), with "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more 58-31 ATS (65%). Meanwhile, unders have gone 88-63 (58%). Divisional unders are 31-16 (66%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more 26-8 (76%).
With these trends in mind, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for today's Week 11 action...
1 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Eagles (8-1) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to the Commanders 32-21 and losing outright as 11-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Colts (4-5-1) just just won Jeff Saturday's debut as head coach, beating the Raiders 25-20 as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with the Eagles listed as high as a 10-point road favorite. The public expects the Eagles to bounce back and cover. However, despite Philadelphia receiving 70% of bets, we've seen this line plummet all the way down to Eagles -6.5. This indicates respected money grabbing Indianapolis plus the points. Dogs with severe line moves of 2-points or more in their direction are 13-8 ATS (62%) this season. Sharps have also hit the over, raising the total from 43.5 to 45.5. The over is receiving 63% of bets but 75% of money, a wiseguy over bet discrepancy.
4:25 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 40) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals (5-4) are coming off a bye and have won three of their last four games. Cincinnati just beat Carolina 42-21 their last time out, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Steelers (3-6) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 20-10 win over the Saints, covering as 1-point home favorites. This line opened with the Bengals listed as high as a 5.5-point road favorite. The pubic is happy to lay the points with Joe Burrow and company. However, despite receiving 65% of bets we've seen the Bengals fall from -5.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Pittsburgh, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Divisional dogs are 30-17 ATS (64%) this season. Mike Tomlin is 48-26 ATS (65%) in his career as a dog. Brad Allen, the lead ref, is 57% ATS to the home team historically. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 40. Divisional unders that fall at least a half point are 17-6 (74%) this season.
4:25 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 48.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys (6-3) just saw their two-game winning streak end with a 31-28 loss to the Packers last week, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (8-1) have won seven straight games and just upset the Bills 33-30, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick'em. The public is riding the red-hot Vikings at home. However, despite 62% of bets backing Minnesota, we've actually seen this line rise to Cowboys -1.5 on the road. Why would the books hand out a better number to public Vikings bettors when they're already on Minnesota to begin with? If it looks too good to be true, it usually is. This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" action on Dallas, with pros laying the points with the "fishy" contrarian favorite. Dallas is only receiving 38% of bets but 51% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Clay Martin, the lead ref, is 57% ATS to the road team historically. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has been steamed up from 47 to 48.5.