NFL Week 9 opening line report

October 30, 2023

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Taking a look at the NFL Week 9 schedule

Quarterback injuries were the biggest stories coming out of Sunday in Week 8, as we had long stretches of Tommy DeVito, Mitchell Trubisky, PJ Walker, Jaren Hall, Taylor Heinicke, Brett Rypien, and even got a Will Levis start. It was certainly an interesting day around the NFL and now we get to spend all week thinking about the most important position on the field for several teams.

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As the calendar flips to November, keep checking those weather forecasts before locking in side, total, and prop wagers. Mother Nature is slowly morphing into Old Man Winter in some places, even though we’re still more than six weeks away from the Winter Solstice.

Before the calendar fully flips to Week 9, we’ve got Raiders vs. Lions and Zachary Cohen has you covered for that game.

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Here are some Week 9 thoughts:

(odds as of 10/29, 8:00 p.m. PT)

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 36.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Thursday Night Football usually isn’t the most aesthetically-pleasing product, but this week’s game could take it to a new level. After throwing four touchdown passes, Levis should get another start for the Titans and we’ll see what kind of shape Kenny Pickett is in. Trubisky was 15-of-27 for 138 yards with two interceptions, so Pittsburgh will be hoping that Pickett can shake off another ailment and get back on a short week. Much like last week with the Bills, a lot of teasers will start on Thursday, as the Titans up to +8.5 with a total in the mid-30s looks like a pretty good wager.

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 50.5) (Germany)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET

We’ve got our first-ever NFL game in Germany this week, as the Dolphins battle the Chiefs. Kansas City lost in ugly fashion to Denver with star QB Patrick Mahomes battling the flu. It seems like international travel to Frankfurt could make things a bit more difficult for Mahomes this week and the Dolphins, who shook off a slow start against the Patriots to secure a two-touchdown win, are highly motivated given that they lost to the Eagles and Bills in games where they stepped up in class. I’ll be very curious to see where this number goes and if the Chiefs can avoid the flu bug rolling through the locker room.

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 38)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

This was the line as of Sunday night, but the loss of Kirk Cousins to a torn Achilles is likely to run this number up. Sean Mannion and Nick Mullens are likely to be the options over the 25-year-old rookie in Hall out of BYU. But, you don’t see a lot of market confidence in the Falcons, who now have a QB controversy after Heinicke replaced Desmond Ridder, who was 8-of-12 for 71 yards. This will be quite the line to follow, as Atlanta’s perception is really low, but the Vikings lost a legitimate MVP candidate in Cousins, who had some of the best numbers in the league at his position.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5, 38.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Fresh off of a bye and playing with expectations, the Texans fell flat against the Panthers. The previously winless Panthers now have a dub and that won’t inspire a lot of confidence in Houston for this week or going forward. That being said, the Buccaneers, who are on extra rest and prep, have dropped three in a row and scored a total of 37 across those games. The NFL has a real quality problem with its offensive game play right now. Outside of the total in the 50s in Germany, we only have two other totals that have a consensus number above 45 this week. This could be a rock fight among many rock fights in Week 9.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 47)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Cowboys put a beating on the Rams, even before Matthew Stafford banged his thumb on a helmet and left the game. Dallas was making plays in all three facets of the game and now gets a crack for the first time this season at the Eagles. Jalen Hurts continued to hobble around the field this week, but still made enough plays to propel his team to a 38-31 win over the Commanders with 21 points in the fourth quarter. Let’s see if 3 is the right number here or if it comes off of the key number one way or the other.

Early lines I like for Week 9

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 47.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Maybe I’m drinking the Kool-Aid a little too early, but the Bengals looked like the team that we thought they would in last week’s game against the 49ers. Joe Burrow looked a lot better and the Bengals defense excelled as well. This is a rematch of the game where Damar Hamlin suffered his medical emergency and that will get a ton of talk this week, especially as Buffalo returns to Cincinnati, but we should keep in mind that the Bengals looked very comfortable in that game and appeared well on their way to winning. Neither roster has changed much, although Buffalo is missing some key players on defense and I think Cincinnati can exploit that. I also think they just match up well.

Pick: Bengals -1.5

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-7.5, 40)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

It will be an early start for the Cardinals in Cleveland and we’ll see throughout the week if weather will be a factor, but this is the Joshua Dobbs revenge game, as he was already named the starter by Jonathan Gannon, even though Kyler Murray is said to be pretty much ready to return. In this game, I just don’t see the Browns with the ability to run away and hide. It will either be the mistake-prone Walker or injured Deshaun Watson. The running game isn’t what it was with Nick Chubb and the Cardinals defense has done well to generate pressure, which was a hallmark of Gannon’s defenses with the Eagles.

This is also a homecoming game for Gannon, who was born in Cleveland and played at St. Ignatius High School in the Ohio City neighborhood just a stone’s throw from downtown. His players seem to really love him, so I think they’ll know what this game means to him.

Edit: Gannon pulled a switcheroo in his media availability on Monday and said that Dobbs would NOT start and it would instead be either Kyler Murray or Clayton Tune. With the assumption being Murray, the line started dropping on Monday afternoon.

Pick: Cardinals +7.5