NFL Week 3 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index
We were fortunate to sweep our NFL best bets last week (2-0) thanks to a curious decision by Rams coach Sean McVay to kick a last-second field goal down by 10 to give us the cover with our +8 ticket. The Cardinals also came through for us, despite blowing a huge lead and turned what should’ve been an easy cover into a late game sweat.
My T Shoe Index is performing well overall in the NFL; I posted this week that sides and totals where TSI has a 4-point discrepancy from oddsmakers have gone 5-0-1 ATS. Small sample size, of course, but encouraging nonetheless. Let’s utilize this burgeoning trend and get to the card for Week 3.
TSI has been very high on New England this year, and they’ve disappointed at every turn so far. Obviously, the Jets are not highly regarded now with Zach Wilson back under center in the absence of Aaron Rodgers, but even accounting for how the Jets have played with Wilson, TSI projects a 4-point New York win here at home.
Neither of these teams is in the top 20 offensively in my ratings, so the difference here lies in the matchup of defenses. New York is up to No. 3 in the TSI defensive ratings, while New England sits at No. 12. We missed the best of the number from earlier this week, when +3 was widely available, but I still like it at +2.5, and if you can shop around and buy a +3 at -132 or better, the math makes sense to play that instead. In Wilson we trust *gulp*.
Pick: Jets +2.5 (Play to pick ‘em)
I always preach about the difference between power rankings and power ratings; the key distinction being that rankings are the order in which teams stack up, whereas ratings are the nuanced difference in between the rankings. This is where TSI really excels. On the surface, these teams boast two top-15 offenses while having defenses ranked outside the top 20. That screams “over!”, right? Not according to TSI.
While everyone surely sees two offenses in a rhythm and two struggling defenses and runs to the window to hammer the over, my ratings project this total at 49 points - five points below the current consensus line. There has only been one total so far this season where the line was five points different from my projection, and the TSI-projected angle covered by 13.5 points. On totals where TSI has had 3.5 points of value or more, TSI is 5-0 and covered by a margin of 11.3 points per game. I’m going to trust the numbers here and root for a slugfest.
Pick: Under 54 Points (play to 52.5)
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
Here are my Week 3 Power Ratings: