NFL Week 2 best bets from the T Shoe Index

September 14, 2023 10:03 AM
 

NFL Week 2 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index

As we head into week 2 of the NFL season, we’ve already season the Chiefs lose at home, Aaron Rodgers tear his Achilles and the Cowboys and 49ers look like world beaters. If you tailed my NFL win total bets, you joined me in celebrating the Week 1 losses of the Seahawks and Broncos, starting us out on the right foot to cash those under bets. Also, be sure to check out my Week 1 recap piece, where I explained how my T Shoe Index adjusted teams after their first game, and why NFL teams don’t get adjusted as much as college teams. Putting Week 1 behind us, let’s get to what TSI has for us in Week 2.

Here are the best bets from the T Shoe Index for Week 2:

Arizona Cardinals vs New York Giants (-5.5), O/U 39.5

Two teams who both lost in Week 1 will face off in Week 2; but, despite both losing, I think the Cardinals have to feel much better about themselves than the Giants do, after Arizona played a tight game with Washington while New York was getting pummeled by the Cowboys. I actually upgraded the Cardinals’ rating after that game, while the Giants were my biggest downgrade after Week 1. 

The Giants had a game grade of -30, which means they were 30 points worse than what the average NFL team would’ve been expected to do against the Cowboys; meanwhile, the Cardinals had a much more respectable -4.5 game grade, which when taken into context that most power rating systems (including TSI) had them at least a touchdown below average heading into the season, that led to their increased rating. TSI actually projects the Cardinals as a one-point favorite in this spot, so the fact we’re getting 5.5 points here is enough to get me to fire on the scrappy Cardinals.

Pick: Cardinals +5.5 (play to 4.5)

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers (-8), O/U 45

From two Week 1 losers to two emphatic winners, the T Shoe Index indicates major value on a side in the Rams vs. 49ers game. San Francisco posted a monster 18.9 game grade last week after throttling the public underdog Pittsburgh Steelers, while LA did my fellow Seahawks win total under bettors a favor by destroying Seattle to the tune of a 14.1 game grade. I project the 49ers as a 3.5-point favorite in this game, so the fact that this line is now north of a touchdown and hook is too much value to pass up. Oddsmakers opened this line at just 6.5, so moving through a key number of 7 and getting a divisional home underdog sounds like the recipe for a winner. 

Pick: Rams +8 (play to 7.5)

Remember that you can get access to my NFL ratings and projections 24/7 here; so bookmark that link and use it as a resource for all of your NFL betting endeavors. You can find my best bets here at VSiN.com every Thursday and if you’re a college football fan, you can get my CFB best bets every Wednesday. Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my thoughts, analysis, and line movement tips in real time.

Here are my Week 2 Power Ratings:

Power Ranking

Team

Power Rating

1

Cowboys

8.0

2

49ers

6.6

3

Eagles

5.3

4

Bills

4.6

5

Chiefs

3.8

6

Ravens

2.2

7

Browns

2.1

8

Bengals

1.9

9

Lions

1.7

10

Jaguars

1.7

11

Jets

1.5

12

Dolphins

1.0

13

Patriots

0.3

14

Packers

0.1

15

Falcons

0.0

16

Rams

0.0

17

Saints

-0.6

18

Chargers

-0.8

19

Vikings

-1.3

20

Titans

-1.6

21

Commanders

-1.8

22

Raiders

-2.2

23

Panthers

-2.4

24

Buccaneers

-2.4

25

Seahawks

-2.5

26

Steelers

-2.9

27

Broncos

-2.9

28

Giants

-4.5

29

Bears

-5.6

30

Cardinals

-5.8

31

Texans

-5.8

32

Colts

-5.9

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