NFL Week 14: Our best bets, picks for every game

By VSiN Staff  (VSiN.com) 

December 11, 2022 11:04 AM
Ra_St_Brown

NFL Week 14 best bets

Welcome to Week 14 of the 2022 NFL season.

Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for more picks as we get closer to kickoff.

Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Thursday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits for each game and live odds across the NFL market.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2, 51.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: This is the most surprising line move of the week as the Vikings (10-2) opened as short road favorites, but the line has flipped to the Lions being favored.

The Lions have been one of my favorite teams to back the past two seasons, but those are mostly in the role of underdogs. (They were 11-6 ATS last year despite a 3-13-1 SU record and are 8-4 ATS this year, including five covers in a row.) While the Lions covered as short 1-point favorites in their 40-14 rout of the Jaguars on Sunday, the last time they were favored (and the only other time this season) was as 3-point chalk versus the Seahawks in Week 4 as they lost 48-45.

This is a clear case of where we love to fade a team in the unfamiliar favorite’s role. However, we feel more confident in just using the Vikings in 2-team, 6-point teasers and count on the Vikings to play another one-score game (they’re 9-0 in one-score games so far this season, so we still might take the regular spread or on the money line) and we’ll pair them with the Ravens, as they’re still a better team than the Steelers even with Tyler Huntley in for Lamar Jackson.

Pick: Vikings +8/Ravens +8 (two-team, six-point teaser)

Wes Reynolds: The Vikings, despite being outgained by 199 yards, only generating 4.3 YPP and giving up 5.9 YPP, somehow managed to win their 10th game this season and move their 2022 record to 9-0 in one-score games.

Many will ask how the Lions are favorites against a 10-2 team? Well, Detroit rates 13th in Overall DVOA vs. the Vikings’ 20th. On offense, the Lions are 9th in DVOA, while the Vikings are 18th. Defensively, the Lions have trended upward to 19th just behind Minnesota at 18. For special teams, the Lions are 9th in DVOA and the Vikings just 20th. 

Detroit is averaging 31.9 PPG at home while only scoring 18.4 PPG on the road. The Lions win games by an average of 4 PPG at home and lose by -7.4 on the road, which is an 11.4-point differential in the home/road splits. 

For the first time this season, the Lions offense is finally healthy with all of its weapons. Recall that Detroit had a double-digit lead at Minnesota in Week 3. I like the Lions to get it done.

Pick: Lions M

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-10, 43.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: This was Jets 10 when we gave it out on “The Greg Peterson Experience” on Sunday night and in our “Tuley’s Takes Today” column on Monday. It was bet down to 9.5 early in the week but is back to 10 at just about all sportsbooks nationwide as of early Thursday evening.

Double-digit dogs are 11-7 ATS (61.1%) this season, but we also faded these same Bills when they were 9.5-point faves at the Lions on Thanksgiving and covered as the Lions only lost 28-25. We also cashed with the Jets 10.5 in the first meeting between these two teams this season in the Bills’ 20-17 win in Week 9 and the Packers 10.5 the week before as the Bills only won 27-17. The Bills have been letting teams stick around all season. They’re only 5-6-1 ATS.

The Jets failed to cover as 3-point dogs in their 27-22 loss at the Vikings last week, but they had their chances, and we expect another one-score game here as the Vikings also went toe-to-toe with the Bills in their classic 33-30 battle in Week 10.

Pick: Jets +10

Wes Reynolds: The Bills and the Jets meet in a Week 9 rematch where the Jets won outright 20-17 as double-digit underdogs. Zach Wilson outplayed Josh Allen in that meeting, but Wilson will be watching this game from the sidelines as Mike White has now taken over as the starter. 

The Bills and Jets rank fourth and fifth, respectively, in Defense DVOA and both are in the top seven against the pass with much healthier secondary units that we saw in the first meeting. 

After this past Monday night’s game with the Saints and the Bucs, divisional games played outdoors in 2022 are now 26-11-1 to the Under. 

Pick: Under 43.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 37)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Brady Kannon: The Steelers have been trending positively ever since their defensive star T.J. Watt returned to the lineup and fellow defensive standout Minkah Fitzpatrick returned to full health after an appendectomy. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has improved upon his passer rating in each of the last four weeks, a stretch in which Pittsburgh has won three of four games.

There are still issues, however. The three wins in the last four weeks have come against the Saints, Colts, and Falcons. In nine games this season, Pickett has only thrown four touchdown passes. The Steelers rank 31st in Yards Per Pass Attempt. They are 30th in Yards Per Play and 26th in Red Zone Offense. What’s more, they may not have Watt or wide receiver Diontae Johnson in the lineup this week against the Ravens. Both were limited in practice on Wednesday and did not practice on Thursday. Johnson is dealing with a hip injury, while Watt has a rib issue. Watt played 87% of the snaps last week against the Falcons but had no sacks and three tackles.

This week will be a step up in class as they face an old division rival in the Baltimore Ravens. The big story is, of course, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson, who will likely miss this game with a knee injury. Jackson's backup Tyler Huntley, however, is probably one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league, and while he is not as explosive as Jackson, he can run. All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley is a big factor in my decision-making in this game. He's a huge piece in both the running game and the passing game for the Ravens. He was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and limited on Thursday. He’s missed the past two games, and my feeling is he will be ready to go this Sunday.

The Ravens' defense has been getting steadily better over the course of the season. They have given up less than 16 points per game on average over their last six contests. They rank 2nd in third-down defense, 5th in sacks, and 9th in Yards Per Point allowed.

My look-ahead line came to Ravens -11. This week’s numbers come to Ravens -9.5, Ravens -8.5, and Ravens -6.5. Now, we must adjust these numbers for Jackson being replaced by Huntley, and for that, I would adjust by 4.5 points. Each set of numbers I make would still have Baltimore as the favorite in the game. With the Ravens catching less than a field goal, I opted for a teaser, taking them up to 8.5. I also made a smaller play on UNDER the total.

Pick: Ravens teased to 8.5 ( 7.5 at worst) & UNDER 37 or better

Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 44.5) at New York Giants

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Femi Abebefe: From a number standpoint, I think there’s a smallish edge in backing the Giants here due to the fact that we’ve seen the Eagles get bet against close to kickoff over the past few weeks. There has to be something about Philly that turns the betting market off.

Hard to see what that is after their impressive performance against the Titans last Sunday. With that said, this is a spot to fade them as they’re about to begin a stretch of three straight road games. Couple that with everyone crowning them as the best team in the NFL with their league-best record 11-1.

Also, on the New York side, I think this will be a kitchen sink kind of game from a respected coaching staff. If you look at the Giants’ schedule, you’ll realize they can’t afford to drop too many games if they want to make the playoffs. After this week, they’re taking trips to Washington and Minnesota in back-to-back weeks.

While they’re banged up and seem to be reeling, I think we see the best the G-Men have to offer this weekend against the rival Eagles.

Pick: Giants +7

Dave Tuley: The Eagles (11-1) still have the NFL’s best record and the inside track on the NFC’s No. 1 seed/first-round bye with a one-game lead over the Vikings (plus the tiebreaker for beating them in Week 2). However, the NFC East still isn’t secured as they only have a two-game lead over the Cowboys (and a rematch coming up in Week 15), plus this is the first of two games versus the Giants (7-4-1).

The Eagles have the No. 3 offense and No. 2 defense in yards gained and yards allowed per game, while the Giants have done it with errors as the offense ranked No. 22 and the defense is No. 23. Despite their lofty record, the Eagles were only 5-5 ATS before back-to-back covers in their 40-33 win vs. the Packers as 6.5-point home favorites and a 35-10 rout of the Titans as 4.5-point home faves to improve to 7-5 ATS. But now they’re on the road, where they’re only 1-4 ATS.

The Giants have been exceeding expectations all season and are 9-3 ATS (5-2 ATS at home) after covering as 2.5-point home underdogs in their 20-20 tie versus the Commanders on Sunday. This line has risen to Eagles -7, making the Giants a live home dog. NFL teams in that role are 40-29-4 ATS (58%), including 7-1 ATS when getting 7 points or more.

Pick: Giants +7

Wes Reynolds: The Eagles won impressively and easily over Tennessee last week, but now they are at the market peak laying a touchdown on the road in a divisional game against a team that, while a tad overrated, is still in the thick of the playoff chase. 

Philadelphia is 11-1 and you can only play the teams in front of you; however, the Eagles have played an easy schedule, as has all of the NFC East. Here are their wins this season:

Week 1: at Detroit (13th Overall DVOA)

Week 2: vs. Minnesota (20th)

Week 3: at Washington (17th)

Week 4: vs. Jacksonville (24th)

Week 5: at Arizona (30th)

Week 6: vs. Dallas (2nd)

Week 8: vs. Pittsburgh (18th)

Week 9: at Houston (32nd)

Week 11: at Indianapolis (31st)

Week 12: vs. Green Bay (15th)

Week 13: vs. Tennessee (16th)

As you can see, the Eagles have beaten only one top-10 team in the DVOA rankings. This week, they get the 21st rated Giants, who have also had their fair share of good fortune this season.

In the last 20 seasons, a team with a 90% or better winning percentage in December is just 25-53-1 ATS (32%) and even worse in these situations on the road with an 8-32-1 (20%) record.

Pick: Giants +

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 47)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Adam Burke: The Browns have had Cincinnati’s number, going 5-0 in the last five head-to-head meetings with an average of 33.2 points per game on offense. If Deshaun Watson plays anything like he played last week, that streak is going to come to an end. Watson was 12-of-22 for 131 yards with a pick, and the Browns, who have had a top-10 offense throughout the season by EPA/play and Success Rate, were 26th and 25th, respectively, in those categories against a terrible Texans defense.

The first meeting between these teams this season was a rout. Cleveland won 32-13 and outgained Cincinnati by more than 200 yards. That Halloween game is the only one the Bengals have lost out of their last six games. Burrow went into that game on a heater with eight total touchdowns in the previous two games but was sacked five times by the Browns’ defense and kept in check.

Will Watson be closer to game speed this week? Will the Browns harass Burrow again? There are a lot of question marks to this game, which is why the UNDER is the play. Cincinnati puts up points, but this is a methodical offense, leading the league in average time per drive and sitting fifth in plays per drive. Their 5.7 yards per play rank eighth and 11.3 yards per reception rank 15th. They’re an efficient offense but not a big-play offense. Neither is Cleveland with the current state of Watson.

Pick: UNDER 47

Dave Tuley: Deshaun Watson’s season debut was anticlimactic as he was 12-for-22 for just 131 yards and an INT for a QBR of 28.5 and didn’t lead the offense to a score until a field goal early in the fourth quarter. The Browns’ only TDs in their 27-14 win over the lowly Texans were on a punt return and two defensive TDs.

We expect an improved performance from Watson along with RB Nick Chubb, who is second in the NFL with 1,119 rushing yards. Even with Jacoby Brissett starting the first 12 games of the season, the Browns are No. 6 in average yards per game (just behind the Bengals at No. 5), so the potential is there.

Meanwhile, the Bengals (8-4) have survived the “Super Bowl loser hangover” for the part, as they’re tied for the AFC North lead with the Ravens but could be due for a letdown after beating the Chiefs 27-24 on Sunday.

Marc Lawrence of playbook.com (and a contestant in the Circa Friday Invitational on VSiN on Friday nights) also shares a system that teams like the Bengals that went from worst to first in their division the prior season are 42-66-3 ATS, including 11-29 ATS as division hosts. Fade away. 

Pick: Browns +6 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4, 41)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: Despite getting blown out 35-10 by the Eagles, the Titans (7-5) still hold a three-game lead in the AFC South over the Colts (4-8-1) and these Jaguars (4-8), which they face twice in the final five weeks. That was the second straight loss for the Titans, who started the season 0-2 but went 7-1 (and 8-0 ATS) in between.

Tennessee’s offense ranks just No. 29 in yards per game as it relies on RB Derrick Henry, who is third in the league with 1,078 rushing yards. QB Ryan Tannehill has mostly succeeded in the game-manager role, but he was sacked six times by the Eagles and wasn’t able to rally the Titans when they fell behind, which is a concern.

The Jaguars have looked much-improved at times this season—including upsets of the Colts, Chargers, Raiders, and Ravens—but they’ve still lacked consistency with a middle-of-the-road No. 17 scoring offense (behind second-year QB Trevor Lawrence) and a No. 25 defense.

The Titans still aren’t receiving much respect from oddsmakers and the public, so this line is too short for me to take the dog, though I like the UNDER 41.5 points as I don’t expect either offense to put up a lot of points in what looks like a 17-13 game or something similar.

Pick: UNDER 41

Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-16, 46)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Brady Kannon: I wrote earlier this week that I felt this game may be one of the most sparsely bet games on the card this week, as such big point spreads tend to scare off bettors. It is likely inflated some from what we saw last week in the fourth quarter from Dallas, combined with the awful performance on offense by the Texans. However, my three sets of numbers this week come to Cowboys -17, Cowboys -14 and Cowboys -11.5 so I imagine a double-digit win is likely. As I also noted earlier in the week, I'm not running to the window to bet Dallas nor am I enthusiastic about taking it with the 1-10-1 Texans who have averaged less than 14 points over their last six contests.

So, it is off to the player prop market we go. I don't believe the Cowboys will have as easy a time finding CeeDee Lamb as they did last week against the Colts. If that’s the case, why wouldn't they increase the use of the running game against the worst run defense in the league?

That brings me to Tony Pollard Over 70.5 rushing yards. Over the last six games, Pollard has averaged over 93 yards rushing per game and Dallas has faced some of the worst rushing defenses in the league; Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, NY Giants and Indianapolis (only the Vikings rank near league average).

My thought is that the Cowboys will try to simplify this game plan: Play good defense, run the ball, and get out of here with a relatively pedestrian win. The Houston defense ranks 13th in the league for passing yards allowed and ninth in Defensive Passer Rating, so again, I believe the offense will come from the running game for Dallas and I don’t see why Pollard shouldn't be able to eclipse 70.5 yards.

Pick: Tony Pollard Over 70.5 rushing yards

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 43.5) at Denver Broncos

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: We cashed with the Broncos 8.5 at the Ravens this Sunday as one of our early NFL picks that have been so hot, and we’ll count on their No. 3 defense to keep them close enough, and then have Russell Wilson and the struggling Denver offense do just enough to get the point-spread cover as they did in the 10-9 loss on Sunday. That improved them to 4-3 ATS in the underdog role.

We don’t expect this to be a low-scoring defense with the Chiefs’ high-powered No. 1 offense, but the Chiefs (9-3) do tend to let teams stick around as they’re 4-8 ATS on the season, including 3-7 ATS as chalk.

Pick: Broncos +9.5

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Dave Tuley: The Seahawks (7-5) rallied to beat the Rams 27-23 in Week 13 to stay one game behind the 49ers in the NFC West and in the thick of the wild card race with the teams in the NFC East.

Geno Smith continues to shine after inheriting the QB job from Russell Wilson and leads the league’s No. 9 offense in yards per game (No. 5 in scoring), though we’re waiting to see if RB Kenneth Walker III’s ankle sprain responds throughout the week. Seattle doesn’t have a Legion of Doom defense anymore, ranking No. 30 in yards allowed per game, so that’s part of the reason they’re only 6-point favorites in this matchup with the Panthers (4-8).

Carolina is coming out of its bye week, and interim coach Steve Wilks has decided to stay with Sam Darnold at QB after he led the team to a 23-10 win vs. the Broncos. The Panthers also rely on RB D’Onta Foreman, who has four 100-yard games in his last six starts since replacing the departed Christian McCaffrey. Despite splitting those games 3-3 SU, the Panthers are actually on a 5-1 ATS run. They have been more competitive than expected as they’ve upset the Buccaneers, Falcons, and Broncos while also covering in SU losses to the Falcons and Ravens.

Pick: Panthers +4.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 37)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Adam Burke: The Buccaneers have a tall task ahead of them this week against the top defense in the NFL, but their hopes of scoring points are on the shoulders of No. 12. Tom Brady is going to have to throw the ball a ton in this game, much like he has most of the season. Tampa Bay’s play distribution features 524 pass attempts from Brady and 267 rush attempts. The Buccaneers have rushed for 3.3 yards per carry, so they’re not going to be able to run it on San Francisco.

There are a few Brady props to choose from this week, but my favorite is OVER 37.5 pass attempts at -110. As it is, Brady has gone over that number in nine of 12 games and topped out at 58 attempts. Two of the three games in which he didn’t go over that total were in Weeks 1 and 2. By sheer volume, I also like Brady OVER 254.5 passing yards, but this is an excellent 49ers defense, and he may be throwing the ball away a little more than he’d like to. With that in mind, I think the pass attempts are a better course of action.

Pick: Brady OVER 37.5 Pass Attempts

Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 52) at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Adam Burke: The Dolphins are in a great position to get back on track and erase the bad memories of last week’s egg against the 49ers. The Chargers are likely to be still missing at least Corey Linsley and possibly Trey Pipkins as well, so they’re going to have issues protecting Justin Herbert. Herbert had a gaudy yardage total last week, but he also threw the ball 47 times to produce just 20 points.

The Chargers couldn’t run the ball again and managed just 5.2 yards per play. They also gave up 6.8 yards per play, which is a bad sign going up against a Dolphins team that leads the NFL in yards per reception by a substantial margin and is second in yards per play to the Chiefs. They are fifth in EPA/play, while the Chargers, ravaged by injuries most of the season, are 19th.

You can’t be 19th in EPA/play on offense if you are going to be a borderline bottom-five defense. That describes the Chargers, who also have those key injuries in the mix again this week. Miami has an average defense but pairs it with a top-five offense. In other words, I don’t think -3 is big enough here and even -3.5 is worth taking, though -3 at -120 is obviously a better use of your money than -3.5.

Pick: Dolphins -3

 

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