NFL Week 14 first touchdown scorer trends: Teams and players to target

By Stephanie Kamerschak  (VSiN.com) 

December 8, 2022 08:06 PM
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Which teams and players should I bet for first touchdown scorer?

Instant gratification - isn’t it the best? That’s why betting on who will score the first touchdown of NFL games has become my favorite thing to do. But, sometimes it feels like it can be a complete and total crapshoot. It seems impossible to predict who will win the coin toss, how the opening kickoff will go, will a team go for it on 4th down, etc, but I was determined to find a trend, a theme, anything that could give me an edge in this volatile market.

So, I started tracking who scored the first touchdown for every NFL team and if it was the first of the game, and, believe it or not, I was able to find some useful information that I’ve already been able to cash in on. Shout-out to Lions RB Jamaal Williams for scoring his FIFTH first TD of the season last week against the Jaguars (+550).

What can we glean from my handy-dandy tracker? First, I ranked each team to find out who is the best (and worst) at finding the end zone first. This allowed me to find mismatches and stick to betting players on one team, as opposed to betting on players from both. For example, If the Browns (10 first TDs this season) were facing the Colts (just 3), I’d pick 2-3 players from the Browns and leave the Colts alone. The beauty of the first touchdown market is you can typically bet on as many as 4 players and still make a profit.

Next, I took a look at which position succeeds the most for each team. For example, the Bills have scored their first touchdown via wide receiver in seven of their 12 games so far. If you place bets on Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie, you’re likely in great shape to cash a bet.

Finally, I, of course, needed to know which players were cashing the most tickets. As previously mentioned, Jamaal Williams is a first touchdown god. He not only leads the league in rushing touchdowns with 14, but he’s also in the lead for most first touchdowns of the game with five. (Below I note some of the other players who scored most often early in games)

Even with our newfound knowledge, we know that this is a highly unpredictable market, so we need to be responsible with our bets. I suggest going with smaller units, especially if you are betting multiple players. Remember, only one player can cash a ticket. That being said…let’s see who we should bet on!

See the latest NFL odds and NFL betting splits.

Best teams at scoring a TD first: (first TD/total games)

  • Browns 10/12
  • Ravens 9/12
  • Vikings 9/12
  • Cowboys 8/12
  • Lions 8/12
  • Eagles 8/12
  • 49ers 8/12
  • Titans 8/12

Worst teams at scoring a TD first: (first TD/total games)

  • Colts 3/13
  • Raiders 3/12
  • Cardinals 4/12
  • Texans 4/12
  • Packers 4/12
  • Bears 5/13
  • Saints 5/13

Best players at scoring first (team’s first TD/game’s first TD)

  • DET RB Jamaal Williams 6/5
  • CLE RB Nick Chubb 4/4
  • MIN WR Justin Jefferson 4/4
  • KC TE Travis Kelce 6/3
  • DAL RB Ezekiel Elliott 5/3
  • CHI QB Justin Fields 5/3
  • LV WR Davante Adams 5/3
  • PHI QB Jalen Hurts 5/3
  • CAR WR D.J. Moore 3/3
  • TEN RB Dontrell Hilliard 3/3
  • LAR WR Cooper Kupp 4/2
  • PIT RB Najee Harris 4/2
  • SF WR Brandon Aiyuk 4/2
  • NYG RB Saquon Barkley 5/1
  • GB WR Christian Watson 4/1
  • WSH RB Antonio Gibson 4/1
  • (only showing players with at least 4 team’s first TD OR 3 game’s first TD)

Check out the full spreadsheet on first touchdown scorers.

NFL Week 14 first touchdown scorer picks

How can this be used in Week 14, you ask? Here are the most lopsided matchups in terms of teams who are great at finding the end zone first, and the teams that are the worst…target the good!

Raiders (3/12) at Rams (7/12) - Thursday, 8:15 PM ET

Okay, hear me out. Yes, we have no faith in the Rams’ ability to score at all, let alone first in the game. However, the Raiders are just so bad at it. I’ll be going with Cam Akers, who scored twice last week against the Seahawks, including the game’s first TD. But, if you must choose a Raider, Davante Adams is your guy. He has 3 first touchdowns this season.

Texans (4/12) at Cowboys (8/12) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Not a shocker, the Texans have only scored a touchdown before their opponent four times, and the Cowboys have an elite offense at this point. I’d bet on both Ezekiel Elliott, who has three first touchdowns, and CeeDee Lamb, who has two.

Browns (10/12) at Bengals (6/12) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Surprisingly, the Browns are the best team in the league at scoring a touchdown first. And now, they’ve got Deshaun Watson with a game under his belt, plus Nick Chubb who has four first touchdowns this season (T-2nd most in the league). I’d bet on both Chubb and Amari Cooper, who has two first touchdowns for the game and three for the team.

Eagles (8/12) at Giants (5/12) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Jalen Hurts, ‘nuff said. I’ll double-up on him in this one since he has three first touchdowns so far. But, I’m also going to bet on Saquon Barkley, who has scored first for the Giants five times, but only one was the first of the game. He’s due. 

Here are all of Week 14’s matchups with their first TD success rate

Have fun and let’s cash some first TD tickets!

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