NFL Week 1 best bets from the T Shoe Index

September 7, 2023 09:11 AM

NFL Week 1 Best Bets from the T Shoe Index

The NFL regular season has arrived and the T Shoe Index likes a play right away on Thursday night. My NFL TSI Ratings are locked, loaded, and ready to go for the season and I’ll be making my adjustments as the results roll in.

Back in my introduction article for VSiN, I talked about how the T Shoe Index works, so I’d encourage you to give that a look. I’ll also be keeping a close eye on Week 1 for my two favorite NFL season win total bets.

Here are the best bets from the T Shoe Index for Week 1:

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) vs Detroit Lions, O/U 53.5

While the Detroit Lions were one of the better storylines of the 2022 season and many expect them to take a step forward this season, they open 2023 with a trip in primetime to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the defending champs - albeit without Travis Kelce, per reports. The T Shoe Index projects this game KC -6.5, which is where the line spent most of the summer but has dropped two full points with the Kelce news. 

If you’ve followed me for any period of time, you know that my stance is that the market generally overreacts to injuries and I think that’s the case again here. We’re still talking about the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs, the #1 rated offense in my numbers. Conversely, the Lions are in the bottom 5 of the league in my projected defensive ratings. I think Andy Reid has earned the benefit of the doubt that he will be able to utilize Mahomes and the Chiefs’ weapons to make up for the loss of Kelce in this spot. In what TSI projects to be a high scoring affair, I’ll take the cheap price with the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs -4.5 (Play to -5.5)

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles (-4), O/U 45

Speaking of teams that participated in last year’s Super Bowl, I expect the Eagles to be a massive public side in this matchup, for what that’s worth. TSI projects this game closer to 2.5, with the Eagles having a top 3 offense going up against a top 6 defense in New England, per TSI offensive and defensive ratings. The Patriots were the team that my numbers were most high on compared to the win totals market, and that translates to this week 1 matchup against the defending league runner-up. This game is in Foxboro and I trust Bill Belichick with a full offseason of prep to keep this game within the number.

Pick: Patriots +4 (Play to +3.5)

Follow along this NFL season where I’ll have the weekend’s best bets right here every Thursday and be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex. If you want to check out the full T Shoe Index ratings and projections, that is available here. Until next time, let’s cash some bets!

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