NFL season win total best bets from the T Shoe Index

August 31, 2023 10:11 AM

NFL Win Totals: T Shoe Index Best Bets for 2023

While we’ve been diving into college football best bets and season previews, let us not forget that the NFL season starts next week, which means it’s time to look at some season win totals and where my T Shoe Index sees value.

Denver Broncos Season Win Total

After finishing 2022 with a piddly 5-12 record, can the Broncos turn it around this year behind QB Russell Wilson? I have my doubts, and so do the numbers. While oddsmakers have more faith in Denver, setting their season win total at 8.5, the T Shoe Index projects a 7-9 record in 2023. While that is an improvement, it’s not enough of an improvement to push them over the win total. TSI projects the Broncos to have just the 27th-best offense in the league while being carried by their 10th-ranked defense, netting out to a power ranking of 27th – about three points worse than the average NFL team. With a slightly above average strength of schedule (15th), this feels like the recipe for an underwhelming season and an under bet.

Pick: Broncos Under 8.5 Wins

Seattle Seahawks Season Win Total

The 2022 season was a great story for Seattle (9-8) and QB Geno Smith, who had a career year; however, TSI sees some regression coming in 2023 for the Seahawks, despite high expectations coming into the season from fans and apparently oddsmakers, who set the win total at 9.5. While the TSI 9th-ranked offense projects to be explosive, especially with the addition of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the draft, the defense will be the unit that holds this team back from reaching its ceiling. This Seahawks defense projects just 28th in the league, sinking the team power rating to -0.3, good for 13th in the league. Combine these ratings with a top-10 projected strength of schedule and we have ourselves another under bet.

Pick: Seahawks Under 9.5 wins

For all of my NFL ratings, projections and win totals, you can get those here. Be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex, where I’ll post analysis and betting nuggets all season long to accompany my best bets, which will be posted exclusively here at  

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