Player props for Lamar Jackson, Samaje Perine, and Jake Ferguson
Even though Old Man Winter is still several weeks away, Mother Nature is still having an impact on some of this weekend’s NFL slate. A major storm on the East Coast will affect games in Baltimore, Landover, and East Rutherford, as rain and wind make for some tough conditions. It is always important to check the forecast, not just for handicapping the game, but also for thinking about what a team’s game-plan might be due to the conditions.
As I mentioned last week, we’re starting to see tendencies emerge with snap shares and targets, not to mention the distribution of carries, so you want to do your research and be aware of those things, as this might be the last week to get some really favorable prop betting odds on certain players.
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(odds as of September 22, 1 p.m. PT)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) Under 222.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Ravens are comfortably favored this week against the Fighting Gardner Minshews, as Anthony Richardson will be out for this one. As comfortable favorites in Week 1 against the Texans, Lamar Jackson had 22 pass attempts on 64 offensive snaps and finished with 169 yards.
Between the spread, the game state expectation, and the weather forecast, I like Jackson Under his passing yards prop. The weather is calling for plenty of rain both Saturday and Sunday, with wind gusts as high as 20 mph during the game. OC Todd Monken shouldn’t want to throw the ball around and shouldn’t have to with his team in a good position to win and win comfortably.
As a side note, the weather conditions look way worse for Jets/Patriots, so consider that with Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, and receiver props in that game.
Samaje Perine (DEN) Over 2.5 Receptions (-120) & Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
With the expectation that Denver is playing catch-up against a Dolphins offense that is the best in the NFL through two games, my guess is that Broncos RB Samaje Perine is active. He has gone over both of these numbers in the first two games and saw an increased snap share last week compared to Week 1, likely due to the fact that the Broncos spent a lot of time trailing. They should trail a lot here as well.
Perine and Javonte Williams have combined for 17 targets, as Russell Wilson seems largely incapable of pushing the ball down the field. Perine is a better receiving back than Williams and I think they’ll have to play a lot of dink and dunk in the second half of this one in hopes of trying to erase a deficit.
Jake Ferguson (DAL) 1st TD Scorer (+1100)
Ferguson leads the league with eight red-zone targets, two more than any other player. The Cardinals have allowed 10 trips inside the 20 through three games, so I anticipate that Dallas will have a chance to get there on the first possession. Ferguson has one touchdown reception to this point and 11 targets, which is tied for second with Tony Pollard.
The second-year player out of Wisconsin is a big target at 6-foot-5 and the Cardinals have already allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends, but haven’t allowed a touchdown yet. Now seems like the time.