Player props for Joe Burrow, Michael Wilson, and Tyreek Hill
Each week in the NFL is an opportunity to gain insight into how an offense will run and how the touches will be distributed. It will depend on the opponent, but it will also depend on what works and what doesn’t for the offense. Some players will be overvalued or undervalued this week because of how they were used in Week 1. There was a lot of moaning and groaning in the fantasy worlds as the first round of games transpired and those things can and will have impacts on the betting markets.
So many people in the legal US betting markets got their feet wet with daily fantasy, hence the popularity of sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. As a result, football player props are highly-scrutinized markets by both the bettors and the bookmakers. Everybody’s taken note of what transpired in Week 1. And, perhaps more importantly, what didn’t.
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Joe Burrow Under 10.5 Rushing Yards
While the pocket was collapsing around him and conditions were poor for throwing, Burrow showed no intention of tucking the football and running with it against Cleveland last week. He recorded one carry for -1 yard and was sacked twice. Reports suggested that Burrow was still battling the calf injury that robbed him of the preseason and I would anticipate that it will be an ongoing thing for him.
What that means is that he should have no desire to run unless all other options are unavailable to him. Frankly, Burrow hasn’t run much except for in games where he has had to, like the playoffs or a regular season game against Kansas City. While this game is very important to not fall to 0-2 in the division, I still can’t imagine that Burrow will be looking to scamper around the field.
The last game marked the fifth straight regular season game and eighth out of 10 that Burrow has finished with 10 or fewer rushing yards. The Bengals are also going to face a defense missing Marcus Williams and with a banged-up Marlon Humphrey, so Burrow should be able to throw into some better windows than he had last week.
Michael Wilson Over 2.5 Receptions & Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
The wide receiver with the highest snap share for the Cardinals was Wilson, who was out there for 96% of the offensive plays. The rookie out of Stanford was targeted four times and had two catches for 19 yards. All four targets came in the second half. The Commanders didn’t really follow the script and lead throughout the game like they were supposed to. Instead, it was a tight game throughout and the Cardinals didn’t have to throw a ton.
I would anticipate that they have to throw a bit more in this game and that should free up some more opportunities for Wilson. I would also suspect that it’s a good sign going forward that he was trusted as much as he was to be out there on the field. His receiving yards line has been a fairly popular bet thus far, as the yardage and the vig have increased slightly, but I tend to agree with that sentiment and think he’s a good play in prop markets this week.
Tyreek Hill Alt Receiving Yards Over 100 (+165)
Bill Belichick has almost always been very adept at taking away a team’s best player. That task is really hard with Tyreek Hill this week. Jack Jones is on IR and Jonathan Jones is questionable for Sunday, but hasn’t practiced this week and only had one tackle last week. After racking up over 200 yards last week, Hill is likely to get either rookie Christian Gonzalez or somebody else down the depth chart.
The Dolphins know that running the football will be a huge issue throughout the season and they largely didn’t bother last week, as Tua Tagovailoa had 45 pass attempts in the high-scoring affair with the Chargers. I’d expect Hill to have another huge game here, especially as Jaylen Waddle works his way through an injury.