NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
Despite a smaller slate, Week 7 was still a strong showing for my first touchdown betting system. Each week, I pay attention to which team is better at finding the end zone first to help me narrow the field. Of the 12 games featuring mismatches this past week, eight of them followed the trend. The system is looking strong!
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Unfortunately for me, there is still some luck involved here and I was only able to cash one ticket on Travis Etienne Jr., but I did see a lot of team-specific trends continue for my FTD (first touchdown) tracker. Let’s recap who I’m happy with and angry at before digging into Week 8.
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Friends
The Ravens’ feet: After a WR ruined their trend of RBs & QBs scoring first for them in Week 6, they got back on track in Week 7. Lamar Jackson ran it in early as Baltimore put a thumping on the Lions. Not only that, they are now the only undefeated team in the FTD market.
The 4-timers Club: Jordan Addison, Christian McCaffrey, and Jakobi Meyers all now have four TFTDs (team-first touchdowns). That’s quite a few considering they’ve only played seven games. Unfortunately, only Addison was a game-first scorer this week, but it’s great to see these guys proving to be players you can count on.
Foes
The schedule makers: Clearly they don’t read my articles because they probably would have found a way to prevent this game from happening altogether. These are the two worst FTD teams, which means we don’t have the opportunity we usually do of betting players on their opponent’s side. The Giants have scored first just once this season, and the Jets have still not done it. Honestly, betting ‘no touchdown’ might be the way to go.
The Patriots: Us Patriots fans were all aboard the “let’s tank” train and what does Bill Belichick do? He goes out and beats one of the toughest teams in the division AND scores the first touchdown, despite having done that just one time this season. Ezekiel Elliott scored first, ruining my Stefon Diggs & Gabriel Davis tickets. Stop messing with my emotions, Bill!
Let’s dig into Week 8 and see if we can find some strong mismatches.
Here’s all of Week 8’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Buccaneers (16.7%) at Bills (57.1%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Falcons (57.1%) at Titans (16.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Rams (57.1%) at Cowboys (50.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Vikings (57.1%) at Packers (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Saints (57.1%) at Colts (28.6%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Patriots (28.6%) at Dolphins (42.9%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Jets (0.0%) at Giants (14.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Jaguars (71.4%) at Steelers (16.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Eagles (71.4%) at Commanders (28.6%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Texans (50.0%) at Panthers (50.0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Browns (50.0%) at Seahawks (66.7%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Chiefs (85.7%) at Broncos (57.1%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Ravens (100.0%) at Cardinals (28.6%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Bengals (33.3%) at 49ers (85.7%) – Sunday., 4:25 PM ET
Bears (42.9%) at Chargers (83.3%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
Raiders (71.4%) at Lions (71.4%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
Here are the games that stand out to me as the most bettable:
Vikings (57.1%) at Packers (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
If Will Ferrell’s character in the movie ‘Blades of Glory’ was here, he’d probably say “we’re going to bet on one player, and one player only”. And that player is Jordan Addison. He has four touchdowns in his last three games and has already cashed in this market three times. He simply must be in your account. The only other player who might be worth a look is T.J. Hockenson who hasn’t been in the endzone much this season but is getting a ton of targets.
Jaguars (71.4%) at Steelers (16.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Outside of the Chiefs, the Jaguars are the hottest team in the NFL right now, winning four straight games. That could be a reason they’re also one of the hottest FTD teams, scoring first in four straight. Travis Etienne Jr. has scored first for them in back-to-back games and already has eight TDs on the season, so I’ll stick with the hot hand there. I also like Christian Kirk who has scored in two straight games and has had a solid target share all season.
Eagles (71.4%) at Commanders (28.6%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Philly’s been a tough one so far. They’ve scored first five times, but have only repeated players twice. I should have seen Dallas Goedert coming this past week since it was National Tight Ends day, but I was distracted by Jalen Hurts who had finally become their first player with two TFTDs the previous week. I still like Hurts against Washington, I’ll learn from my mistakes and take Goedert. Plus, I’ll add A.J. Brown, who already has a whopping 809 receiving yards (2nd most in the NFL), but only three touchdowns. It’s his turn.
Ravens (100.0%) at Cardinals (28.6%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
I feel like a broken record here, but the Ravens’ run game has only let me down one time so far this season, so I just have to stay there. And with the way their offense moved with ease against Detroit’s, I can only imagine they won’t need to change much to be successful against Arizona. Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, let’s go!
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
