NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks
I don’t mean to brag but wow, Week 6 was great for my first touchdown (FTD) betting system. All season I’ve been tracking each and every first touchdown and using that information to narrow the field. It truly showed to be effective this past week. Twelve games featured FTD mismatches, and 10 of them stayed true to the trend.
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Not only was I able to predict which team would score first, I actually cashed three tickets while only betting on seven games. Thanks to Christian McCaffrey, Jakobi Meyers, and Keenan Allen, my account is full.
Before looking ahead to Week 7, here are my weekly friends and foes:
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Friends
The undefeateds: We’ve run out of undefeated teams in the regular standings, but not in the FTD market. The Ravens (6/6), 49ers (6/6) and the Chargers (5/5) have not let me down yet. So far the trend has been my friend and I’m not going to stray.
Heating up: A couple of teams are building solid FTD streaks and deserve their flowers. The Chiefs (5 straight) and Lions (4 straight) are on fire right now. They are just below the undefeateds in my favorite teams to target.
The 3-timers club: We’re only 6 weeks in and we already have several players who have at least three TFTDs (team-first touchdowns) and we need to take note. Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin, Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers, Rams RB Kyren Williams, Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert, Vikings WR Jordan Addison, 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey, and Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III are on auto-bet for me at this stage.
Foes
The Bills: They scored first against the Giants with a wide receiver as expected, but they made us wait until the 4th quarter before finding the endzone. This is supposed to be an instant gratification market! It was an absolutely brutal sweat for us FTD bettors, and to make it worse, the player who scored was Deonte Harty (+3500 at DraftKings) who entered the game with a mere 11 receptions on the season. I can’t imagine too many tickets were cashed with him. The good news? The Giants stayed defeated at 0/6 and we can stick to avoiding them at all costs.
Taking a week off: They weren’t even on a BYE week and the Cardinals, Giants, and Buccaneers all still failed to score a touchdown in Week 6. Thanks for nothing.
Here’s all of Week 7’s games with their 2023 FTD success rates:
Jaguars (66.7%) at Saints (66.7%) – Thursday, 8:15 PM ET
Lions (83.3%) at Ravens (100%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Falcons (50%) at Buccaneers (20%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Commanders (33.3%) at Giants (0%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Raiders (83.3%) at Bears (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Bills (66.7%) at Patriots (16.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Browns (40%) at Colts (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Steelers (20%) at Rams (50%) – Sunday, 4:05 PM ET
Cardinals (33.3%) at Seahawks (60%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Chargers (100%) at Chiefs (83.3%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Packers (40%) at Broncos (50%) – Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Dolphins (50%) at Eagles (66.7%) – Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
49ers (100%) at Vikings (50%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
It’s a bit of a bummer slate this week with a lot of the good teams facing each other, but here are the games that stand out to me as the most bettable:
Raiders (83.3%) at Bears (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
Las Vegas perfectly illustrates one of the main lessons I learned from tracking this data last season; sometimes crappy offenses make the best FTD teams. They’re scoring 16.7 points per game this season, tied for the 27th fewest in the NFL, but are five-of-six when it comes to scoring the first touchdown. It doesn’t matter to me who plays QB for them on Sunday, I’m sticking with the hot hands in Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams who have all five of their FTDs so far.
Bills (66.7%) at Patriots (16.7%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
This one should be easy considering how useless the Patriots offense appears to be. As I mentioned above, Buffalo made me mad last week by waiting forever to score and pouring salt in my wound by throwing it to somebody named Deonte Harty (no disrespect to him, but he wasn’t exactly on my radar). I’ll have tickets on Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in hopes they return to form against the pathetic Pats.
Cardinals (33.3%) at Seahawks (60%) – Sunday, 1 PM ET
As Andre 3000’s backup singers sing in his song, “Hey Ya!”, Arizona is ICE COLD! They’ve refused to score first since Week 3 and didn’t score at all in Week 6, so I’ll be on Seattle. Kenneth Walker III and DK Metcalf have combined for all five of their team-first touchdowns. I’ll take both of them and Tyler Lockett who leads the team in targets but hasn’t made my FTD tracker yet.
49ers (100%) at Vikings (50%) – Monday, 8:15 PM ET
A lot of injury questions in this one but, if Christian McCaffrey plays, we just have to bet him. There are no odds too short for the player who has at least one touchdown in 15 straight games. He’s scored first for the undefeated FTD Niners three times already. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his odds dip below +200 soon depending on the opponent. As insurance, I’ll have a bet on Brandon Aiyuk. If McCaffrey isn’t himself, they’ll likely be pass-happy. I’m also going to take a small piece of Jordan Addison, who has three TFTDs for the Vikings and has consistently had odds higher than +1000.
Follow me on X (@billzinmepocket) for my official bets each Sunday morning and let me know who you like!
