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NFL first TD scorer Week 4 picks and stats; what we learned in Week 3

By Stephanie Kamerschak  (VSiN.com) 

September 27, 2023 09:27 AM
 

NFL first touchdown scorer player prop picks

As LL Cool J says, “don’t call it a comeback!” After a disappointing Week 2, Week 3 was fantastic for my first touchdown betting system. Based on 2022 FTD (first touchdown) success rates, the better team scored first in 12 of 16 games, which gave us a great edge in narrowing down the field to just one team’s players to bet on. I was able to cash two of my 10 bets which was enough to come out profitable. Tutu Atwell was *this* close to being my third winner which would have made it an unreal week, but I’m happy with what I was able to get.

I’ll get to my picks for Week 4 in just a moment, but here’s who I’m loving and hating this week…

Week 4 Hub | NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Best Bets | 1st TD Tracker

Friends

Perfect teams: Five teams have scored the first touchdown in all three games so far this season. The Ravens, Raiders, Chargers, Saints, and 49ers are all auto-bets, provided there are no key injuries. The only problem is that most of those teams do have some big names we need to monitor but, I love seeing the trends brewing.

The Ravens’ feet: I’ve commented many times on the Ravens’ affinity for scoring first with a different member of their running game and this past week was no different. Lamar Jackson (+500 at DraftKings) scampered into the end zone to become their 3rd different player to run it in for an FTD this season. All we have to do is check the tracker and see who they’ve used already and scratch them off the list!

The Cardinals?!: I wrote about the Cardinals’ early-game success in last week’s article and explained why in this case I was going to go against my system and bet an Arizona player and a Dallas player despite the Cowboys being the superior FTD team. It paid off as James Conner scored first for the second straight week. And, just as I suspected, due to the tough Dallas defense, his odds were greater than usual. In Week 2 against the Giants, Conner cashed at +800, and in Week 3, he cashed at +1100. Nice!

Foes

The Titans: After being one of the most reliable teams last season, they haven’t scored a TD first yet in 2023. Not only that, they ALREADY have multiple games with zero touchdowns in the game. I’m fully off the Titans bandwagon.

The Cowboys: Dallas didn’t score first this week against the Cardinals, but the trend of their team-FTD coming from a super random player continued in Week 3 with RB Rico Dowdle. We might need to look for books that offer “any other Cowboys player” and bet that until they show us that the name-brand guys are bettable.

Here are the Week 3 matchups including the teams’ 2023 & 2022 numbers for just one more week to give us a better sample size. (all numbers are percentages)

Lions (66.7 / 64.7) at Packers (66.7 / 35.3) - Thursday, 8:15 PM ET

Falcons (33.3 / 41.2) vs Jaguars (33.3 / 42.1) - Sunday, 9:30 AM ET (London)

Dolphins (66.7 / 33.3) at Bills (66.7 / 52.6) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Broncos (33.3 / 35.3) at Bears (33.3 / 47.1) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Ravens (100.0 / 66.7) at Browns (66.7 / 76.5) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Bengals (33.3 / 60.0) at Titans (00.0 / 64.7) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Rams (33.3 / 52.9) at Colts (33.3 / 23.5) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Buccaneers (00.0 / 38.9) at Saints (100.0 / 47.1) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Commanders (33.3 / 47.1) at Eagles (66.7 / 70.0) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Vikings (66.7 / 66.7) at Panthers (33.3 / 52.9) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Steelers (33.3 / 35.3) at Texans (33.3 / 35.3) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Raiders (100.0 / 41.2) at Chargers (100.0 / 66.7) - Sunday, 4:05 PM ET

Patriots (33.3 / 47.1) at Cowboys (66.7 / 68.4) - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Cardinals (66.7 / 35.3) at 49ers (100.0 / 60.0) - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

Chiefs (66.7 / 60.6) at Jets (00.0 /  35.3) - Sunday, 8:20 PM ET

Seahawks (33.3 / 38.9) at Giants (00.0 / 36.8) - Monday, 8:15 PM ET

Here are the matchups I like the most based on mismatches:

Bengals (33.3 / 60.0) at Titans (00.0 / 64.7) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

It’s not that I love the Bengals, it’s that I hate the Titans. Tennessee’s offense has proven so pitiful, they can not be counted on in any matchup. Pretty chalky, but I’ll go with Joe Mixon who scored first for them last week, and Ja’Marr Chase who has plenty of yards, but no touchdowns so far this season. They’re going to want to get him on the board eventually.

Commanders (33.3 / 47.1) at Eagles (66.7 / 70.0) - Sunday, 1 PM ET

Washington is another team with a touchdown-less game already this season so I’m all over the Eagles in this one. Let’s just hope they don’t hit us with another player like Olamide Zaccheaus and make us all do the Snoop Dogg gif and yell, “WHO!?”. I’ll stick with Jalen Hurts who already has three rushing touchdowns this season, and D’Andre Swift who has clearly taken the spot as top dog in their RB room.

Patriots (33.3 / 47.1) at Cowboys (66.7 / 68.4) - Sunday, 4:25 PM ET

This is a tough one, because as I mentioned above, Dallas has been scoring their first touchdowns with no-names so far this year, but I’m sticking it out and betting on their stars at least one more time. I’ll go with Tony Pollard and Michael Gallup. Pollard leads the team in rushing attempts by a lot, and Gallup led the way in receptions and receiving yards last week. Giddy up. If you feel compelled to take a Patriots player, it might be noteworthy that they’ve scored all three of their team-first touchdowns via tight end so far.

Chiefs (66.7 / 60.6) at Jets (00.0 /  35.3) - Sunday, 8:20 PM ET

This might be the easiest matchup of the week. New York’s offense looked pitiful last week with Zach Wilson sacking himself and no position player having over 50 yards. I definitely recommend betting several Chiefs players based on how much they have spread the ball out this season. Kansas City already has 13 different receivers with catches on the year, eight of which have at least seven receptions. This doesn’t make it easy on us to identify a favorite player. I’ll go with Rashee Rice who leads the team in targets (14) and receptions (10), Travis Kelce who’s clearly not afraid to show off in front of the #Swifties, and the Chiefs D/ST as I predict the Jets might put the ball in their hands more than once.

That’s it for this week. Follow me on X for my official bets each Thursday, Sunday and Monday: @billzinmepocket and let’s cash some FTDs!

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