Monday Night Football Sharp Report: Saints at Bucs

December 5, 2022 01:38 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football...


8:15 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 41)

The Saints (4-8) have lost three of their last four games and just got shutout by the 49ers 13-0, failing to cover as 8.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Bucs (5-6) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end last week, falling to the Browns 23-17 and losing outright as 3-point road favorites. 

This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as high as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Tom Brady at home. However, despite receiving 69% of bets we've seen the Bucs fall from -6.5 to -3.5. The Saints +3.5 is juiced up to -115, signaling a possible further drop down to the key number of 3. This signals respected money grabbing the points with New Orleans, triggering sharp reverse line movement on the road dog. 

The Saints match several key betting systems. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 68-45 ATS (60%) this season. Divisional dogs are 35-23 ATS (60%). Primetime dogs are 22-16 ATS (58%). New Orleans also has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (41). Brady has struggled against the Saints since joining the Bucs, going just 1-4 straight up. 

Pros have also leaned under here, dropping the total from 42 to 41. Unders that fall at least a half point are 59-39 (60%). Divisional unders are 35-22 (61%). Divisional unders that fall at least a half point are 21-9 (70%). The forecast calls for high 60s with 5 MPH winds. Clay Martin, the lead ref, is 56% to the under historically. The Bucs are 9-2 to the under this season. The Saints are 6-6. 

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