Monday Night Football Sharp Report: 49ers at Cardinals

November 20, 2022 10:52 PM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football...


8:15 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-8, 43) at Arizona Cardinals

The 49ers (5-4) have won two straight games and just took down the Chargers 22-16 but failed to cover as 8-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Cardinals (4-6) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 27-17 win over the Rams, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. 

This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite, as the game will be played in Mexico City. The early lookahead line on this game was just 49ers -1.5. Respected money has laid the point with the 49ers, steaming San Francisco up from -7 to -8 or even -8.5 at some shops. The 49ers are only receiving 44% of bets but 47% of dollars, signaling some contrarian sharp action in their favor. San Francisco is also in a prime teaser spot. By teasing the 49ers down from -8 to -2 bettors pass through the top two kew numbers of 3 and 7. 

One big injury to monitor here is Cardinals QB Kyler Murray, who is questionable with a hamstring injury and considered a game-time decision. If Murray is upgraded to probable, expect this line to fall back down toward Arizona. Bettors should be glued to Twitter and prepared to pounce as soon as Murray's status is updated.

The Cardinals match several profitable betting systems. Divisional dogs are 32-19 ATS (63%) this season. Big dogs +7 or more are 23-12 ATS (65%). Primetime dogs are 21-11 ATS (66%). Arizona also has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (43). 

Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45 to 43. Divisional unders are 33-18 (65%) this season. Unders that fall at least a half point are 52-35 (61%). Primetime unders are 20-12 (62%). The under is receiving 30% of bets and 37% of dollars, a contrarian "low bets, higher dollars" discrepancy. The 49ers are 6-3 to the under. The Cardinals are 5-4-1 to the over. Mexico City is know for its high elevation, which could provide a benefit to the under. 


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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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