Five NFL Week 12 games wiseguys are targeting

November 26, 2022 12:23 PM
brady11

Entering Week 12 of the NFL regular season, we've seen dogs go 91-69 ATS (57%). Dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 37-24 ATS (61%) and "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more are 61-34 ATS (64%). Meanwhile, unders have gone 94-70 (57%). Unders that fall at least a half point are 52-35 (60%), divisional unders are 33-19 (63%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more are 27-10 (73%). 

With these trends in mind, let's examine where smart money is leaning for NFL Week 12...

 

Baltimore Ravens (-4, 43.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Ravens (7-3) have won four straight games and just held off the Panthers 13-3 but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Jaguars (3-7) have lost six of their last seven games and are coming off a bye. Jacksonville fell to Kansas City 27-17 their last time out, failing to cover as 9.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public thinks the line is way too lay and they see an easy win and cover with the Ravens. However, despite receiving 79% of bets Baltimore hasn't moved off -4. Typically, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would expect to see them rise to -4.5 to -5. The fact this line hasn't moved signals some line freeze liability on the home dog Jags. Jacksonville has a rest advantage coming off a bye while the Ravens played last week. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 64% ATS this season. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 43.5. The under is receiving 48% of bets but 85% of money, a massive sharp under bet discrepancy. 

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 43) at Cleveland Browns

The Bucs (5-5) are coming off a bye having won their last two games in a row. Tampa Bay beat Seattle 21-16 in Germany their last time out, covering as 2.5-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (3-7) have lost six of their last seven games, most recently falling to the Bills 31-23 and failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a 3-point road favorite. Respected money has laid the points with Tampa Bay, driving the Bucs up from -3 to -3.5. Favorites off a bye, like the Bucs here, are 8-5 ATS (62%) this season and roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. Road favorites are even better, covering at roughly 65% over the past decade. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 43. The forecast calls for 20 MPH winds at the Dawg Pound. The Bucs are 8-2 to the under this season. The under is receiving 40% of bets but 66% of money, a wiseguy under bet discrepancy. 

 

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-13, 46)

The Texans (1-8-1) own the worst record in the NFL and just fell to the Commanders 23-10, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Dolphins (7-3) are coming off a bye having won four straight. Miami just crushed Cleveland 39-17 their last time out, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Miami listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. Sharps expect a big Miami win and cover, steaming the Dolphins up from -9.5 to -13. The Dolphins have value as a favorite off the bye (62% ATS this season and roughly 57% ATS over the past decade). Both teams are allowing roughly 24 PPG defensively. The difference comes on offense, where the Dolphins are averaging 25 PPG compared to just 16 PPG for the Texans. Pros have hit the over, raising the total from 45 to 46. The over is receiving 48% of bets but 68% of money, a sharp over bet discrepancy. 

 

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5, 47.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Chargers (5-5) have dropped three of their last four games and just fell to the Chiefs 30-27 but covered as 5.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Cardinals (4-7) have also lost three of their last four and just got rolled by the 49ers 38-10 in Mexico City, failing to cover as 9.5-point neutral site dogs. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Sharps have laid the points Los Angeles, steaming the Chargers up from -2.5 to -4.5. Los Angeles has value as a non-conference favorite in a high total game (47.5). The lack of familiarity between non-conference opponents benefits the favorite and so do high totals as the more expected points scored makes it easier for the favorite to cover the number. The Cardinals are also on a short week, having played on Monday night. 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 39)

The Steelers (3-7) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Bengals 37-30, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Colts (4-6-1) have lost four of their last five games and just lost to the Eagles 17-16 but covered as 6.5-point home dogs. This line opened with the Colts listed as a 3-point home favorite on Monday Night Football. The public is laying the short number with Indianapolis, yet we've seen the Colts fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals pro money grabbing the points with the road dog Steelers. Primetime dogs are 21-12 ATS (64%) this season. Mike Tomlin is 48-27 ATS (64%) in his career as a dog. Pittsburgh is in a prime teaser spot (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through the two most important key numbers of 3 and 7. The total has dipped slightly from 39.5 to 39. The Steelers are 6-4 to the under and the Colts are 9-2 to the under. 

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