Through 10 weeks of NFL regular season action, underdogs and unders have been a profitable bet. Dogs are 85-62 ATS (58%), led by "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more 58-31 ATS (65%). Meanwhile, unders are 88-62 (59%). Divisional unders are 21-16 (66%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more are 26-8 (76%).
With these trends in mind, let’s examine a handful of Week 11 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors…
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Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys (6-3) just fell to the Packers 31-28 in overtime, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Vikings (8-1) have won seven straight and just took down the Bills 33-30, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick’em. We’ve seen the Cowboys move up to a 1-point road favorite. The public is shocked and thinks the wrong team is favored, as they’re rushing to the window to back the trendy dog Vikings. However, this line has remained frozen at Cowboys -1. It feels as though the books are begging you to grab Minnesota, which feels fishy. Typically, when it looks too good to be true it usually is. Dallas has value as a contrarian favorite, receiving only 31% of bets but 45% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. It appears as though pros are fading the trendy dog Vikings.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45) at Indianapolis Colts
The Eagles (8-1) just lost their first game of the season, falling to the Commanders 32-21 and losing outright as 11-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Colts (4-5-1) just won their first game under new coach Jeff Saturday, beating the Raiders 25-20 and winning outright as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with the Eagles listed as high as a 10-point road favorite. We’ve seen this line fall all the way down to Eagles -6.5, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the Colts. Dogs with severe line moves of 1.5-point or more in their favor are 13-8 ATS (62%) this season. Indianapolis is only receiving 47% of bets but 79% of money, a massive sharp money discrepancy in their favor. The Colts also have a rest vs tired advantage as the Eagles are on a short week having just played on Monday night. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 43.5 to 45.
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3, 38.5)
Both of these AFC East rivals are coming off a bye. The Jets (6-3) are coming off a 20-17 upset win over the Bills, winning outright as 10.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Patriots (5-4) just crushed the Colts 26-3, easily covering as 5-point home favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen this line fall from 4.5 to 3, signaling pro money grabbing the points with the road dog Jets. Divisional dogs are 30-17 ATS (64%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 63-45 ATS (58%). Most books are juicing up the Pats -3 at -115, which means bettors who like the Jets should wait and hold out for the hook (+3.5). We could also be looking at a lower scoring game as the total has fallen from 39.5 to 38.5. Divisional unders that fall at least a half point are 17-6 (74%) this season. The under is receiving 35% of bets but 76% of money, a massive sharp under discrepancy.
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5, 41) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals (5-4) are coming off a bye. In their last game, Cincinnati crushed the Panthers 42-21, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Steelers (3-6) just beat the Saints 20-10, covering as 1-point home favorites. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the high-flying Bengals. However, despite receiving 60% of bets the Bengals have fallen from -5.5 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the home dog, with pros grabbing the points with Pittsburgh. The Steelers have value as a divisional dog (64% ATS this season) and a sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more (65% ATS). Mike Tomlin is 48-26 ATS (65%) in his career as a dog. We’ve also seen smart money hit the under, dropping the total from 43 to 41. The under is receiving 33% of bets but 57% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 50) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs (7-2) just took down the Jaguars 27-17, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Chargers (5-4) just fell to the 49ers 22-16 but covered as 8-point road dogs. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public isn’t scared off by the big number and 66% of bets are laying the points with Kansas City. However, we’ve actually seen this line fall from Chiefs -7 to -6.5, This indicates sharp money buying low on the Chargers at home, triggering line movement in their favor. Primetime dogs are 19-11 ATS (63%) this season. Divisional dogs are 64% ATS. Justin Herbert is 4-1 ATS in his career against the Chiefs. The total hasn’t budged off 50 despite 65% of bets taking the over. This signals some line freeze under liability. Primetime unders are 20-10 (67%) this season. Both teams are 5-4 to the under.