Early NFL Week 14 Sharp Report

December 6, 2022 12:36 AM
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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 14...

 

 Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-1. 53)

The Vikings (10-2) have won two straight games and just edged the Jets 27-22, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Lions (5-7) have won four of their last five games and just crushed the Jaguars 40-14, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to back the Vikings, due in large part to their impressive record and short spread. However, despite Minnesota receiving 72% of bets we've seen this line completely flip to Lions -1. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" reverse line movement on Detroit, with pros backing the Lions at home. Detroit is only receiving 28% of bets but 42% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. We've also seen respected money hit the over, raising the total from 52 to 53. The Lions are 8-4 to the over this season, including 5-2 to the over at home. The Vikings are 5-2 to the over. 

 

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-9, 44) 

The Jets (7-5) have exchanged wins and losses over their last five games and just fell to the Vikings 27-22, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Bills (9-3) have won three straight and just brushed aside the Patriots 24-10, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 10-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from Bills -10 to -9, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Jets. Big dogs +7 or more are 26-17 ATS (60%) this season. Divisional dogs are 36-23 ATS (61%). Dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 43-33 ATS (57%). Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 44.5 to 44. Divisional unders are 36-22 (62%) this season. Buffalo is 9-3 to the under. New York is 7-5 to the under. 

 

Miami Dolphins (-3, 52) at Los Angeles Chargers 

The Dolphins (8-4) just their five game winning streak come to an end, losing to the 49ers 33-17 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chargers (6-6) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Raiders 27-20, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. Sharps have laid the points with the Dolphins, steaming Miami up to -3. Several shops are juicing up the Miami -3 to -115, signaling a possible further rise up to -3.5. The total has ticked up slightly from 51.5 to 52. Currently 62% of bets but 84% of money is taking the over, signaling a sharp over bet discrepancy. The Dolphins are 5-1 to the over on the road this season. Miami is 4-1 to the over their last five games. 

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