Early NFL Week 13 Sharp Report

November 28, 2022 11:27 PM
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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast, which is posted by 3 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where early smart money is leaning for NFL Week 13...

 

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 46.5)

The Dolphins (8-3) have won five straight games and just brushed aside the Texans 30-15, covering as 14-point home favorites. Similarly, the 49ers (7-4) have won four straight and just shutout the Saints 13-0, covering as 8.5-point home favorites. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on the Dolphins plus the points, dropping the line down from 4.5 to 3.5. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 66-39 ATS (63%) this season. Tua Tagovailoa is 9-4 ATS (69%) in his career as a dog. Kyle Shanahan is just 19-28 ATS (40%) in his career as a favorite. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 45.5 to 46.5. The over is receiving 71% of bets but 89% of money, signaling heavy public and sharp support. 

 

Los Angeles Chargers (-2, 50.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chargers (6-5) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 25-24 win over the Cardinals but failed to cover as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Raiders (4-7) have won two straight and just upset the Seahawks 40-34 in overtime, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point road favorite. Currently 69% of bets are laying the points with the Chargers. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Los Angeles fall from -3 to -2. Some shops are even down to 1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Raiders, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Divisional dogs are 33-20 ATS (62%) this season. The Raiders are also in a prime teaser spot (+2 to +8), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7. We could also bee looking at a shootout here, as the total has been steamed up from 48 to 50.5. 

 

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 52.5) at Cincinnati Bengals 

The Chiefs (9-2) have won five straight games and just beat the Rams 26-10, covering as 15.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bengals (7-4) have won three straight and just edged the Titans 20-16, winning outright as a road pick'em play. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay short spread with Patrick Mahomes. However, despite receiving 83% of bets the Chiefs have fallen from -3 to -2.5. Why did the books drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already hammering the Chiefs to begin with? Because wiseguys have grabbed Joe Burrow at home, dropping the line toward the contrarian dog Bengals. Burrow is 14-7 ATS (67%) in his career as a dog. The Bengals are a prime teaser candidate (+2.5 to +8.5), passing through multiple key numbers. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 51.5 to 52.5.

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Lou Finocchiaro: Kenneth Gainwell Anytime TD +380. View more picks.

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PRO TIPS

Live Bet Sunday: The majority of the handle for the Super Bowl will come relatively late, ramping up a few days before the game. Expect this action to alter the money line prices if not the spread. View more tips.

The Lombardi Line: The Chiefs have FOUR rookie DBs with Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson, and Bryan Cook. If the Chiefs D focuses on pass rush and leaves the DBs to play man-to-man, the Eagles' pass catchers have the advantage. View more tips.

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