User posts that Will Levis is telling family and friends he’s going No. 1
How fragile is the NFL Draft betting market? Look no further than the Reddit post that sent shockwaves through the No. 1 overall pick market on Tuesday morning, just two short days prior to the start of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Reddit user “SaleAgreeable2834”, whose account is a whopping seven days old, posted in the r/sportsbook subreddit that “Will Levis is currently +4000 to be the first overall pick. Well ladies and gentleman [sic], he’s telling friends and family Carolina will in fact take him on Thursday. You’re welcome.”
Redditors, who have moved betting markets and stocks before, hopped on the news and a wave of betting action came in on Levis, even though Bryce Young was still the overwhelming odds-on favorite. Some sportsbooks even took the odds down briefly to account for the developments.
1st Overall Pick Odds (DraftKings)
Bryce Young -1600
Will Levis +650
CJ Stroud +2500
Anthony Richardson +3500
Odds as of April 25, 8:30 a.m. PT
Order has mostly been restored, but Levis did get as low as +400 at DraftKings. Some commenters in the Reddit thread mentioned seeing Young as low as -700 at some sportsbooks.
With a very fluid market like that of the NFL Draft, news and rumors sway odds all the time. In this case, Redditors that found the thread were willing to throw some bets on Levis, either to enjoy the fun and live in the moment, or because they thought this user really did have some inside intel.
Comments include (copied and pasted directly):
“I know this is fake but I can’t not bet it now”
“Account made last week, 2 posts ever, sounds stupid, I’m in”
“Yo, regardless of the actual outcome, this thread shows how much of an affect a single unverified source can have in the gambling community and can be a case study on information dissemination. That being said, appreciate the tip, let’s Ride.”
“Eh, I’ve wasted $25 on worse”
“Easiest $15 loss of my career”
“I'll always throw like $10 on this sh*t people claim here, why not, that's what makes it fun. Just got it on Draft Kings. Seems crazy though when another dude is literally -2000 to be the first pick.”
“Lot's of people who suck at parties in here. Bet $10 and enjoy the ride. Or don't. Buncha Buzz Killingtons.”
“Imagine being such a wet blanket that you wouldn’t want to throw a few dollars on this and just laugh it off. It’s about the story and the ride fellas. You think I give a single f*** about the one drink worth of money I’m putting on this.”
“Lol this dude probably created a burner, posted this, waited an hour, then put 10 grand on Bryce Young at 1 overall…”
An interesting case study in sports betting
A bunch of $5, $10, $15, $25 bets adds up in the grand scheme of things for draft betting, particularly because there isn’t going to be a lot of investment in Young at such a large price. Sportsbooks are kind of forced to react on the off chance that the news is actually true. A $25 bet at +4000 is still $1,000 in payout, if Levis does somehow go first overall and this post isn’t just complete hogwash.
Remember the Jaren Jackson Jr. Reddit post that had an impact on the Defensive Player of the Year market? Remember the NBA Draft craziness? Armies of recreational bettors throwing small bets on longer shot odds have to be respected to some degree, simply because of the scope of the losses if something that looks unbelievable turns out to be factual.
There are some markets that could be ripe for manipulation tactics such as viral social media posts and other rumors. It is not out of the realm of possibility that we see an increase in the frequency of these types of episodes in one form or another. Certainly the NFL Draft and its inherent uncertainty is a perfect storm kind of scenario for something like this, but we’ll have to see if other examples pop up as sports betting continues to take the country by storm.