2023 NFL Draft odds: Who will be the No. 4 pick?

April 12, 2023 09:15 PM

Anthony Richardson favored to be fourth overall pick

The top player to be selected in the 2023 NFL Draft seems to have been set in stone for a while, but there has been some question about the rest of the draft. The rest of the top five could go any number of ways, depending on trades and whether or not Anthony Richardson and/or Will Levis are viewed as franchise quarterbacks.

Recent draft movement has made Levis the favorite to go fourth overall with a pick currently held by the Indianapolis Colts. For a while, it was Richardson, but he's now the second favorite. It seems like the Colts will select one of the two quarterbacks in this spot. If a trade does happen for the No. 3 pick, they might still take one, but may also have a different view depending on which one is still available.

At that point, could we see a trade for somebody to take Will Anderson or one of the other players on the board?

Could we see a real blockbuster move where the Colts send an offer sheet to Lamar Jackson? They wouldn’t need a quarterback if that were the case.

Odds to be the No. 4 Pick (DraftKings)

(odds as of April 27, 10:30 a.m. PT)

Anthony Richardson +100
Will Levis +125
CJ Stroud +300
Paris Johnson Jr. +1200
Will Anderson +1500
Tyree Wilson +1500

Will Levis scouting report

Like Richardson, Levis has the measurables at 6-foot-4 and 239 pounds. He’s not a runner and more of an upright pocket passer, but he’s got a big arm and good size to see over the line and above rushing defenders. Levis has more experience under his belt as a two-year starter that played in all four of his collegiate seasons, including the first two at Penn State. With Kentucky, Levis posted a 43/23 TD/INT ratio with good completion rates in an NFL offense, first led by Liam Coen (Rams OC 2022 and now Kentucky OC again) and then Rich Scangarello (49ers QB coach, longtime NFL assistant). The numbers weren’t great, but neither were the receivers and the Wildcats ran the ball a lot.

Anthony Richardson scouting report

Richardson is a physical specimen with elite measurables for his position, but teams are going to have to decide whether or not to buy the raw tools and hope that he develops into the player that they want him to be. Richardson was a very inefficient one-year starter at Florida, as he completed just 53.8% of his passes with a 17/9 TD/INT ratio during the 2022 season. He had a 6/5 TD/INT ratio in 2021 over 64 attempts. However, he also ran for 6.9 yards per carry on 161 attempts with 12 touchdowns. The monster arm and the tremendous size will cause a team to use an early pick on him, but how he translates to the NFL with one season as a starting QB is a mystery.

Will Anderson scouting report

With Jalen Carter’s legal trouble and other questions about his draft profile, Anderson has emerged as the favorite to be the first defensive player drafted. He may very well be gone if the Cardinals keep the No. 3 pick, but the most likely way he gets taken at No. 4 is if the Colts trade up or trade down. It would be shocking if Indy kept the pick and passed on one of the two quarterbacks. The 6-foot-4 edge rusher had 34.5 sacks, 58.5 tackles for loss and 204 overall tackles at Alabama in three seasons. He was fifth in Heisman voting in 2021 and is the most impactful pass rusher in an otherwise lackluster class.

Mock drafts favor Will Levis to go No. 4

Opinions are really scattered on the quarterbacks outside of Young and Stroud, but some draftniks and analysts do believe that the big arm of Levis and the way he has impressed during his interviews could make him a top-five pick. Richardson’s physical tools and the needs of the teams with high picks will put him squarely in the top five. The Colts seem to be the likeliest fit with Gardner Minshew, Nick Foles, and Sam Ehlinger on the depth chart. If the Colts were to add Jackson to the depth chart, they’d likely trade out of No. 4 and another QB-needy team would slide in.

Another thing to consider is that Young and Stroud are considered NFL-ready from the jump, whereas Richardson and Levis would have to sit for a while and learn. Are the Colts prepared for that this season, especially with Caleb Williams and Drake Maye in next year’s class?