Circa Million contest Week 1 odds
The fifth-annual Circa Million features the biggest prize guarantee yet with $6 million on the line and sign-ups will continue into Saturday afternoon at 2 p.m. PT. The odds for each week in the contest come out around 10 a.m. PT and it is an interesting exercise to compare what the Circa team has come up with and what the betting market has.
Because the Circa Million operates with “stale lines” (lines that come out on Thursday and do not move), you can find some discrepancies between their numbers and what the markets are showing because there is a little bit of fortune telling involved. The Circa team has to make some educated guesses about injury situations and also foreshadow where the lines may move so that they remain as competitive as possible at the time when the picks must be submitted (Saturday 4 p.m. PT).
Here’s a side-by-side of the Circa lines and the betting market odds as of Thursday morning:
|
Away Team
|
Home Team
|
Circa
|
Consensus
|
|
Lions
|
Chiefs
|
-4.5
|
-4.5
|
|
Panthers
|
Falcons
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
|
Texans
|
Ravens
|
-10
|
-10
|
|
Bengals
|
Browns
|
+2.5
|
+2.5
|
|
Jaguars
|
Colts
|
+4.5
|
+5
|
|
Buccaneers
|
Vikings
|
-5.5
|
-5.5
|
|
Titans
|
Saints
|
-3
|
-3
|
|
49ers
|
Steelers
|
+2.5
|
+2.5
|
|
Cardinals
|
Commanders
|
-7
|
-7
|
|
Packers
|
Bears
|
+1
|
+1
|
|
Raiders
|
Broncos
|
-3.5
|
-3.5
|
|
Dolphins
|
Chargers
|
-3
|
-3
|
|
Eagles
|
Patriots
|
+4
|
+4
|
|
Rams
|
Seahawks
|
-5.5
|
-5.5
|
|
Cowboys
|
Giants
|
+3
|
+3.5
|
|
Bills
|
Jets
|
+2
|
+2.5
|
Most of the Circa Million numbers mirror the market, but there are a few little differences:
Jaguars (-4.5 / -5) at Colts: Keep in mind that there will be times where the Circa team just shades a number to avoid pushes and add a hook. In this instance, I think there is a belief that this line will tick down slightly. Divisional home underdogs tend to be popular contest picks and also popular picks in the betting market, even though we have a pretty clear QB mismatch between Trevor Lawrence and the unproven Anthony Richardson.
Cowboys (-3 / -3.5) at Giants: The Giants are getting a fair share of support, even though the market has moved up from the key number of -3 up to -3.5 at a lot of places. It will be a very popular game both ways, so putting right on 3 is an interesting decision. There is some risk-reward in play, as I discussed in my Contest Strategies article, regarding taking a half-point line so you can vie for a full point instead of a half-point. Circa was at extra juice on Giants +3.5 (-115), so that may have played into the decision as well. Others in the market are also -3, so that may just be the closing number.
Bills (-2 / -2.5) at Jets: This projects to be another popular game. Many will like the idea of getting points with Aaron Rodgers against a Bills team that hasn’t really gotten a ton of buzz coming into the season. Others will love Josh Allen under a field goal. Both numbers are there and the difference between 2 and 2.5 pales in comparison to the difference between 3 and 3.5, but it is interesting nonetheless to see an expectation that this line may very well close on 2.
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