Circa contest update: 4 Survivors move on; Million Top 5 went 2-3 in NFL Week 16

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 24, 2022 08:49 PM
Circa_Survivor-Week_16a

Circa Survivor update with Week 16b picks

Circa Survivor III is down to 4 live entries after a wild NFL Week 16 Saturday card that almost saw the $6.133 million pool come to an end.

In the contest that drew a record 6,133 entries at $1,000 apiece before the season and requires players to pick one NFL winner a week without using the same team twice, a contestant going by the alias Maddog-2 survived with the Vikings in their 27-24 win vs. the Giants on Greg Joseph’s 61-yard field goal as time expired while those using the Lions (5), Titans (3) and Browns (1) were eliminated in the early Saturday games.

The other 3 remaining contestants – THE ENEMY WITHIN-2, BROWNA-1 and JED-4 – needed the Steelers to beat the Raiders on Saturday night. A loss or tie by the Steelers would have made Maddog-2 the sole winner of the $6.133 million jackpot.

The Raiders jumped out to a 7-0 lead midway through the first quarter and were still leading 10-6 late into the fourth quarter, but the Steelers’ defense continually gave its offense chances and QB Kenny Pickett hit WR George Pickens on a 14-yard TD pass with 46 seconds to play for the 13-10 come-from-behind victory.

That extended Circa Survivor to Week 16b (aka “Christmas Week”) as the Final Four now need to pick a winner by the 9 a.m. PT Sunday deadline from the 4 games being played on Sunday and Monday. We’ll update this story with their selections at that time. You can also follow all the action on Twitter @ViewFromVegas, @VSiNLive and @CircaSports.

I haven't seen this mentioned anywhere else yet, but with the Vikings squandering a late lead and the Steelers not leading until the final minute, there was also a very real possibility that Circa Survivor could have ended with a 14-way chop of $438,071.43 apiece if all 14 entries had lost (with THE ENEMY WITHIN earning two shares for $876,142.86). But it didn't happen that way.

How Saturday unfolded in Circa Survivor

There were 14 live entries heading into Week 16a (which included Thursday Night Football and the Saturday games) and those picks were due at 10 p.m. PT Friday and were announced on Matt Youmans’ “Saturday Bet Prep” show on VSiN by Circa owner Derek Stevens and Circa VP Mike Palm.

It wasn’t learned until that time that the field was already down to 13 with one entrant, THE ENEMY WITHIN – the only Survivor with 2 live entries heading into the week – losing one of those on the Jets on Thursday Night Football. THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 entry was joined by BROWNA-1 and JED-4 in needing the Steelers on Saturday night.

There were also 2 entries – Bull Hill and HOWARD HAMLIN – that were alive for the aggregate $1 million bonus that was offered by Stevens for any Survivor(s) who were able to go 20-0 on the season (18 NFL weeks, plus the extra “Thanksgiving Week” and “Christmas Week”) and not use the two Super Bowl teams from last season: Rams and Bengals.

However, both used the Lions on Saturday, so Stevens doesn’t have to pay out the bonus this year.

Survivor players usually play favorites, so here’s the availability for the 4 entrants in the 4 games in Week 16b/Christmas Week:

Dolphins: JED-4, Maddog-2

Buccaneers: BROWNA-1, JED-4

Broncos: JED-4

Chargers: BROWNA-1, Maddog-2, THE ENEMY WITHIN-2

Three have the Chargers available on Monday night, with THE ENEMY WITHIN-2 not having any other faves left. Maddog-2 has the Chargers but also the Dolphins. BROWNA-1 has the Chargers plus the Buccaneers. JED-4 is the only one that can’t use the Chargers, but has the 3 other faves available. We’ll see their decisions after 9 a.m. PT Sunday.

SUNDAY UPDATE: The four remaining Survivors submitted their plays with three going with plays on Sunday and one on Monday:

Maddog-2=Dolphins

BROWNA-1=Buccaneers

JED-4=Buccaneers

THE ENEMY WITHIN-2=Chargers

Circa Sports Million update

Because of the holiday schedule, the vast majority of players submitted their picks early (only 5 games remained in NFL Week 16 after the regular 4 p.m. PT submission deadline).

And the results were also poor in this contest as the Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 2-3 with the second win not coming until the No. 5 selection, Steelers -2.5, covered in the 13-10 win vs. the Raiders in the Saturday night game.

The No. 1 choice was the Eagles +5.5, which lost 40-34 at the Cowboys; No. 2 was the Bengals -3, which covered in a 22-18 win at the Patriots; No. 3 was the Lions -2.5, which lost 37-23 at the Panthers; and No. 4 was the Browns -2.5, which lost 17-10 vs. the Saints.

The Top 5 has dropped to 40-36-4 (52.6%) on the season while the No. 1 pick dipped to 11-5 (68.8%).

The No, 6 play on the Commanders +7 at the 49ers and No. 7 play on the Bears +8.5 vs. the Bills also lost. 

Circa_Sports_Million-Week_16

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