Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s NFL Wild Card games.
4:30 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 50.5)
The Packers (9-8) are the 7-seed and won their final three games of the regular season, beating the Bears 17-9 in Week 18 and covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (12-5) are the 2-seed are are riding a two-game winning streak, crushing the Commanders 38-10 in the regular season finale and easily covering as 13-point road favorites.
This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 7-point home favorite. We saw this line creep up to Cowboys -7.5 early in the week. However, once the hook was available we saw sharp buyback on the Packers +7.5, dropping the line back down to Cowboys -7. The public is riding with Dallas, as 60% of bets are laying the points with the Cowboys.
The Packers have contrarian value as they are only receiving 40% of bets in addition to the sharp buyback in their favor. Playoff dogs are 44-30 ATS (59%) since 2017. Wild Card dogs are 21-11 ATS (66%) since 2017. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like the Packers here, are 35-17 ATS (67%) since 2017. The Texans covered in this spot yesterday against the Browns.
We’ve also seen the total rise from 49.5 to 50.5. Currently 65% of bets and 80% of money is sweating the over, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. However, historically we’ve seen these high totals go under in the postseason. When the total is 47 or more the under is 26-13 (67%) in the postseason since 2018.
Player Props to Consider: Jake Ferguson over 43.5 receiving yards (-120). Ferguson has gone over this number in five of his last six games. He has averaged 7.3 targets over his last six games. Ferguson is second on the Cowboys in targets with 102, trailing only CeeDee Lamb (181).
Dontayvion Wicks over 32.5 receiving yards (-120). Wicks has gone over this number in six of his last eight games. Wicks is third on the Packers in targets with 58, trailing only Romeo Doubs (96) and Jayden Reed (94%).
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3, 52)
The Rams (10-7) are the 6-seed and have gone 7-1 in their last eight games, beating the 49ers 21-20 in Week 18 and winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Lions (12-5) are the 3-seed and went 3-1 down the stretch, edging the Vikings 30-20 in Week 18 and covering as 3.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with the Lions listed as a 3-point home favorite. This like quickly ticked up to Lions -3.5 early in the week. However, once the hook was available we saw sharp buyback on the Rams +3.5, dropping the line back down to Lions -3. Currently 48% of bets and 58% of money is taking the points with Los Angeles, signaling a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog.
Los Angeles matches several playoff betting systems. Wild Card dogs are 21-11 ATS (66%) since 2017. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year are 35-17 ATS (67%) since 2017. Wild Card dogs playing an opponent who missed the postseason the previous year are 13-1 ATS (93%) since 2017. The Rams enjoy a rest advantage as they sat several of their starters in Week 18 while the Lions played most of their starters. Los Angeles also enjoys far most playoff experience as Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford have won a Super Bowl while the Lions are in the postseason for the first time since 2016.
The total opened at 52 and hasn’t budged despite 67% of bets taking the over. This signals a sneaky sharp line freeze to the under. Playoff unders are 37-26 (59%) since 2018. When the total is 47 or more the under is 26-13 (67%) in the postseason since 2018.
Player Props to Consider: Tyler Higbee Over 27.5 receiving yards (-120). Higbee has gone over this number in five straight games. Higbee sat out Week 18 with a shoulder injury and was limited in practice throughout the week but is expected to play. Higbee is third on the Rams in targets (70), trailing only Puka Nacua (160) and Cooper Kupp (95).
Demarcus Robinson Over 42.5 receiving yards (-125). Robinson has gone over this number in five straight games. Robinson is well rested having sat out Week 18. He caught 6 passes for 92 yards and was targeted 10 times against the Giants in Week 17.
