Start your weekends with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I'll also be breaking down the board on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston from 8 to 10 a.m. ET.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's NFL Week 1 slate...
1 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-2, 41.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to back San Francisco. However, despite receiving 66% of bets we've seen San Francisco fall from -3 to -2, including a further dip from -2.5 to -2 over the past 24-hours despite the news that Nick Bosa would play for San Francisco. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Steelers, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. The Steelers are only receiving 34% of bets but 47% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Mike Tomlin is 51-27 ATS (65%) as a dog in his career, producing a 27% ROI. He is 15-4 ATS (79%) as a dog home. Kyle Shanahan is just 24-29 ATS (45%) as a favorite. The Steelers are also in a prime teaser spot (+2 to +8), which passes through multiple key numbers (3 and 7).
1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 47.5) at Cleveland Browns
This line opened with the Bengals listed as 2.5-point road favorites. The public sees an easy win and cover with Joe Burrow and Bengals laying a short spread under a field goal. However, despite 71% of bets backing the Bengals, we've seen Cincinnati fall from -2.5 to -1.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already sweating Cincinnati to begin with? Because wiseguys have taken the points with Cleveland at home, triggering sharp line movement in their favor. The Browns are only receiving 29% of bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the week, but they're also receiving 40% of money, indicating a sharp bet split in their favor. Divisional dogs are 162-124 ATS (57%) over the past three seasons. Dogs are 36-27 ATS (57%) in Week 1 over the past four seasons. Cleveland is also providing teaser value (+1.5 to +7.5), passing through multiple key numbers.
4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 41.5)
This line opened with the Bears listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is all over Chicago, with 71% of bets laying the short chalk. However, we've seen the Bears plummet from -2.5 to -1.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Packers, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Week 1 road dogs are 51-35 ATS (59%) over the past decade, producing a 15% ROI. Divisional dogs are 162-124 ATS (57%) over the past three seasons. Justin Fields is just 8-17 ATS (32%) in his career. The Packers are in a prime teaser spot (+1.5 to +7.5), passing through multiple key numbers. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45 to 41.5.
8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 45) at New York Giants
This Sunday Night Football line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 3-point road favorite. This line has been going back and forth from Cowboys -3 to -3.5, indicating respected buyback on the Giants +3.5 every time the hook has been available. The public is split down the middle with roughly 50% of bets on each side. However, the Giants are receiving nearly 60% of money, indicating a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split. The Giants match several key betting systems. Primetime dogs are 93-64 ATS (59%) over the past four seasons, producing a 14% ROI. Divisional dogs are 162-124 ATS (57%) over the past three seasons, generating a 9% ROI. Dogs tend to bark louder in divisional games due to the built in familiarity of knowing your opponent, which levels the playing field. Daniel Jones is 26-15 ATS (63%) in his career as a dog. Brian Daboll went 10-2 ATS (83%) as a dog in his first season as Giants head coach. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 47 to 45. Primetime unders are 123-80 (61%) with a 16% ROI over the past four seasons.
More Week 1 Line Moves
Patriots +5 to +3.5 vs Eagles
Rams +6 to +4 at Seahawks
Titans +3 to +2.5 at Saints
Bucs +6.5 to +5 at Vikings
Texans +10 to +9.5 at Ravens