Betting Splits and NFL Sharp Money Picks for TNF Vikings-Eagles

September 14, 2023 04:22 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET. 

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday Night Football...


8:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 49)

The Vikings (0-1) dropped their season opener to the Buccaneers 20-17, losing outright as 4-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Eagles (1-0) beat the Patriots 25-20 in Week 1, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. 

This Thursday Night Football line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 7-point home favorite. Early money appeared to lean Eagles as the line briefly ticked up to Philadelphia -7.5. But then over the last 48-hours we've seen this line fall from Eagles -7.5 to -6.5, signaling an overload of late sharp action grabbing the points with the road dog Vikings. Some shops are even down to Eagles -6. This movement is especially notable because the public is all over Philadelphia. However, despite 67% of bets laying the points, this line has moved away from the popular side (Eagles) and toward the unpopular side (Vikings). This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Minnesota.

Injuries are likely a factor with this big dip in the spread as the Eagles are expected to miss three starters due to injury: running back Kenneth Gainwell, cornerback James Bradberry and safety Reed Blankenship. Linebacker Nakobe Dean was also placed on injured reserve after getting hurt in the season opener. 

Aside from the line move in their favor, the Vikings have excellent contrarian value as they're only receiving 33% of bets in a heavily bet primetime game. Primetime games are the best situations to go contrarian because they're the most heavily bet games of the week with the most public bias to go against. Minnesota has buy-low value as an unpopular road dog who failed to cover last week playing a sell-high favorite who did cover. 

The Vikings also match several profitable betting systems. Dogs are 10-6 ATS (62%) so far this season. Road dogs are 8-2 ATS this season and 433-343 ATS (56%) since 2018. Short road dogs +6 or less are 6-1 ATS this season and 180-114 ATS (61%) since 2019. Conference dogs +6 or less are 7-3 ATS this season and 283-198 ATS (59%) since 2019. Primetime dogs are 2-1 ATS this season and 94-65 ATS (59%) over the past four seasons. Kirk Cousins is 30-22 ATS (58%) in his career as as a dog getting 3-points or more. 

Pros have also hit the over, raising the total from 48 to 49. Currently 52% of bets and 59% of money are taking the over. This "low bets, higher dollars" bet split signals a relatively undecided public but also some respected sharp action banking on a higher scoring game. However, unders have gone 12-4 (75%) to start the season. Primetime unders a perfect 3-0 so far this season and 125-80 (61%) over the past four seasons. Clay Martin, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (58% ATS) and unders (54%). The forecast calls for clear skies, low 70s with 5-10 MPH winds. 

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