Betting Splits and NFL Preseason Sharp Money Picks for Thursday August 24

August 24, 2023 06:53 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday's NFL Preseason doubleheader...


7:30 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 38.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers (2-0) are undefeated thus far in the preseason, beating the Buccaneers 27-17 in the opener and winning again 27-15 over the Bills last week. Meanwhile, the Falcons (1-0-1) crushed the Dolphins 19-3 in the opener and then tied the Bengals 13-13 last week. For tonight's matchup, the Steelers opened as low as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is relatively split and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, pros have taken a position on Pittsburgh, steaming the Steelers up from -2.5 to -4.5. Pittsburgh is receiving 54% of bets but 71% of money, a notable sharp bet discrepancy. Mike Tomlin is 39-24 (62%) straight up in the preseason, producing a 16% ROI. Tomlin is also 33-29 ATS (53%) with a 3.5% ROI. Pittsburgh has the better quarterback depth chart, led by Kenny Pickett and experienced backups Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 38.5. Currently 65% of bets and dollars are taking the over. The over is 20-12 (63%) this preseason. 


8 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 38) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Colts (1-1) dropped their preseason opener to the Bills 23-19 but bounced back with a win in Week 2, defeating the Bears 24-17. On the flip side, the Eagles (0-1-1) fell to the Ravens 20-19 in the opener and then tied the Browns 18-18 last week. This line opened with the Colts listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with the Eagles. However, despite 81% of bets taking Philadelphia, we've seen this line move further to Indianapolis -3.5 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Colts, with the line moving in their direction even though the Eagles are the popular play. Indianapolis has value as a contrarian "fade the trendy dog" favorite in a primetime game. The Colts are getting 19% of bets but 44% of money, a notable "low bets, higher dollars" sharp bet split. Sirianni is 1-5-2 (17%) straight up in the preseason and 2-5-1 (29%) ATS. Sirianni his historically rested his starters in the final preseason game. Meanwhile, Colts first year coach Shane Steichen is expected to play many of his starters. Sharps also seem to be leaning under, as the total hasn't moved off 38 despite 67% of bets taking the over.

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