Betting Splits and NFL Preseason Sharp Money Picks for Friday August 25

August 25, 2023 06:48 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.

You can also check out the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Friday's NFL Preseason slate...


8 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (-4.5, 37)

The Lions (1-1) beat the Giants 21-16 in their preseason opener but then got waxed by the Jaguars 25-7 in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Panthers (0-2) have lost both preseason games, dropping the opener 27-0 against the Jets and then losing to the Giants 21-19 last week. This game opened with Carolina listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the Lions plus the points. However, despite 75% of bets taking Detroit, we've actually seen this line move further to Carolina -2 to -4.5. This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" reverse line movement on Carolina, with pros laying the points with the contrarian favorite Panthers. Carolina is only receiving 25% of bets but 57% of money, a notable "low bets, higher dollars" sharp bet discrepancy. Lions head coach Dan Campbell is expected to sit most of his starters and is likely to trot out Nate Sudfeld and Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, both of whom struggled in offensively last week. On the flip side, Carolina head coach Frank Reich is expected to play Bryce Young and many of the starters. Campbell is 2-6 (25%) straight up in the preseason. 


10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 38) 

The Chargers (1-1) crushed the Rams 34-17 in Week 1 of the preseason but then fell to the Saints 22-17 in Week 2. Conversely, the 49ers (1-1) got rolled by the Raiders 34-7 in the opener and then bounced back with a 21-20 win over the Broncos last week. This line opened with the 49ers listed as low as a 3.5-point home favorite. Once again, the public is jumping on the trendy road dog plus the points. However, despite 74% of bets taking Los Angeles we've seen San Francisco get steamed up from -3.5 to -7.5. This signals heavy smart money laying the points with the 49ers at home. San Francisco is receiving 26% of bets but 67% of money, a massive sharp contrarian bet split. Why such a big move to San Francisco? Because, according to the respective head coaches, the Chargers are expected to sit their starters while the 49ers are expected to play their starters. At quarterback, it will likely be Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold facing off against Easton Stick and Max Duggan in the first half. Pros have also hit the over, raising the total form 37 to 38. The over is receiving 73% of bets and 83% of money. Overs are 21-13-1 (62%) this preseason. Brandon Staley is 2-6 (25%) straight up in the preseason. 

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