Thursday Night Football best bets: Jaguars at Jets
Mike White is battling a rib injury and likely won’t start due to a short-week turnaround for the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football. The freefalling Seahawks are getting a three-point head start against the 49ers. Too much? Too little? Good prop bets? See what our analysts have to say.
Throughout the season, our VSiN experts will combine to give their best bets on every game. Check back for picks for the rest of Week 16 as we get closer to kickoff.
Odds are from DraftKings (unless noted) as of Wednesday night. Go to VSiN.com for Betting Splits and live odds.
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Before we get to what our VSiN analysts had to say in written form about the game, here's what Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard had to say on Thursday's edition of Follow The Money.
Adam Burke: Showing up late to the party can still be better than not going to the party at all. I think that’s the case with the under in Thursday Night Football between the Jags and Jets. The total has fallen from 42 to as low as 37 in the marketplace, but that probably isn’t even low enough. We’re talking about wind gusts in the 40 mph range as a major winter storm impacts a large swath of the country throughout the week.
The Jaguars and Doug Pederson really like to throw the ball. They have 500 pass attempts against 366 rush attempts. They’re also running into a good Jets defense that doesn’t need help from adverse conditions to play well but certainly won’t complain about them. Rain will make the field sloppy and make it tough for running backs to find traction. Wet weather can help receivers because they know where they’re going and the defensive backs don’t, but the wind will neutralize that advantage.
The Jets are starting Zach Wilson. Not much more needs to be said about their offensive projection. They’ve already served the hors d'oeuvres and tapped the keg, but we can still enjoy the party on this under.
Pick: Under 37
Dave Tuley: The Jets (7-7) are tied with the Patriots for the last AFC wild-card spot, with the Jaguars (6-8) just one game back (and the Jaguars one game behind the Titans in the AFC South). This Thursday nighter is much more important than anyone would have thought before the season. The Jaguars have back-to-back upsets of the Titans and Cowboys and are starting to live up to their potential that we saw flashes of earlier in the year.
The Jets are leaking jet fuel – or at least some oil – with three straight losses and dropping four of their last five. Because White hasn’t been cleared to play, Wilson will start again. Interestingly, the move to the former first-round pick caused the line to move to Jaguars being favored at some books, but it’s now back to Jets -1.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
With the Jets’ offensive woes but a No. 3 defense to stand up to Trevor Lawrence and the resurgent Jaguars’ offense, I was going to give out Under 37.5, but the total went as low as 36 before going back up to 37.5.
The smarter play is to use a 2-team, 6-point teaser to give a little more wiggle room up to Under 43, along with taking the Jaguars up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 and getting more than a TD.
Pick: Jaguars +8.5/Under 43 (2-point, 6-point teaser)