Andrews: Inside the betting action for NFL Wild Card Weekend

January 14, 2023 07:14 AM
Josh_Allen_Bills

And then there were 14. Yes, the NFL playoffs have arrived and 12 of those 14 teams will be in action this weekend.

It truly is not that often that the point spread even matters during the regular season. The team who wins the game, typically covers the number, meaning when underdogs cover, they usually win the game outright – and when favorites win, they usually cover the number.

The percentage of these results taking place jumps up even higher in the wild-card round – and the public has jumped on board with this head-first as they are all over the big favorites this weekend with the 49ers, Bills and Bengals – parlays, teasers, money line, you name it. We will need at least one of the big dogs to come through. We'll see.

Of the 14 teams in the dance, my guess at a Super Bowl matchup would be the Chiefs vs. the 49ers. Again, we'll see.

Here are the games in official Nevada rotation order.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 42)

We opened this 10.5. They took the 10.5, took the 10, so we are now at 9.5, but the public is laying back the 9.5. A lot of weather expected in this game, so we opened the total 43.5. They bet me Under and now I'm at 42. The public is still betting me Under, but I'm not quite ready to go any lower just yet.

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a weird one. We opened this game pick-’em. The first bet came in on the Chargers and we went to Chargers -1. Then we took a big money-line bet on Jacksonville at +105, so I went back to pick-’em. Since then it's been all Chargers. They bet me Chargers at pick, I went to 1, 1.5, 2, and they're even laying the 2.5. It has been sharp money on the Chargers all the way up to the 2. At 2.5, it is mostly public money. We opened the total 47.5, went down to 47 briefly, and then back up to 47.5.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5, 43.5)

I kind of liked the Bills in this game because I was pretty sure that Tua Tagovailoa was not going to play. I opened it Bills -11. They took the 11, took the 10.5, took the 10, and I was at 9.5. Then word started coming out about the Miami quarterback situation and they laid me the 9.5. With that I went straight back to 11. They laid me the 11 and I went to 13. More quarterback news came in, they laid me the 13, and I am now at 13.5. We opened the total 46. We went to 44 on the news and then got bet Under that and we're at 43.5 now.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 48.5)

We opened this 2.5. They laid me the 2.5 and I went to 3. Since I have been at 3, it's been all Giants money and I have a feeling I'm going to be back to 2.5 at some point. It could become one of those 2.5/3 games, but for now I imagine we'll see 2.5 again. The first move on Minnesota was sharp action and we are getting sharp action on New York at +3 as well. We opened the total 48, they bet me Over and I'm at 48.5.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-9, 40.5)

This game opened 6.5 at most spots but I opened it 7 because I thought there would be quarterback issues for the Ravens. They took the 7 and we went to 6.5. Then they laid the 6.5, laid the 7, and laid the 7.5. I skipped the 8 and went straight to 8.5. They laid that and I went to 9.5. On Friday morning, I took a pretty big whack plus the 9.5, so we're back down to 9 with the game. I have plenty of public money on the Bengals, but it was sharp money on Cincinnati all the way up until about 8.5. We opened the total 44. They bet me Under 44, Under 43.5 and I went to 42. They bet me Under that and I went to 41.5. They bet me Under that, I went to 40.5 and that's where I am right now. It's been all Under the total.

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 45.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I'd like to bet against both of these teams, but I can't figure out how to do that. I opened Cowboys -3 and sharp money took the 3. So now I'm at 2.5 and at 2.5, it's been all Cowboys – and sharp money included. I think we will get back to 3 eventually before kickoff. We opened the total 45, we went to 45.5 and haven't moved since then.

Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at South Point Hotel in Las Vegas, a member of the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, and has been a Nevada bookmaker for over 40 years.

 

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