Andrews: Inside the betting action for NFL Week 12 games on Thanksgiving

November 24, 2022 01:22 AM
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Happy Thanksgiving, everybody. We all have a great deal to be thankful for. Personally, I am grateful to be in good health and able to share these columns with you every week.

Thanksgiving is a huge betting week for us. I would say the five days – Thursday through Monday – rivals the opening day of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

Let’s start our weekly reports with the NFL’s Thanksgiving Day games, then we’ll post our regular college football report on Thursday morning and then return with the rest of the NFL Week 12 schedule on Saturday morning.

I always laugh, for over 40-years as a bookmaker, as it seems I am always rooting for the Lions and against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. We'll see how it goes this year. Likely more of the same.

As always, we present the games in official Nevada rotation order.

 

Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 54.5) at Detroit Lions

 

We opened this game 9 and with primarily recreational business, we've gone to 9.5. We're now writing pretty even business at the 9.5. Parlays, money line parlays, teasers, all that stuff is on the Bills which is no surprise and all of that is in the number. We opened the total 54 and have gone to 54.5. I have a feeling we'll get to 55 before kickoff. 

 

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 45.5)

 

This one is interesting. We opened the game 9 and went to 9.5, again with primarily recreational business. Then word came out on Wednesday that four offensive linemen are not making the trip for the Giants, so we went to 10. We did a little bit of business at 10, some sharp action, and we went to 10.5 and then the wise guys took the 10.5, so we are back to 10. A lot of action on this game. We opened the total 44.5. They bet me Over 44.5, Over 45, so we are now at 45.5 and writing pretty even business at that number.

 

New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)

 

We opened the game 3. They took the 3, we went to 2.5, they laid back the 2.5, we went to 3 again and they took the 3 again, so we are back to 2.5. Definitely sharp money on the +3 and some sharp money on the -2.5, too – and you know how this goes from reading this column. We do everything at 11-to-10 here at South Point. We don't move the juice to -115 or -120 either way, so we attract a lot of action at either the 3 or the 2.5 because we typically have the best price on whichever number one likes. This will be a heck of a game betting-wise, especially being the late game. The total has not moved, but we opened the money line -155/+135 and we are now at -145/+125. Again, sharp money on the dog.

 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

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College Lines Revealed: ATS record is a great indicator as to if the market overvalues or undervalues a team, especially late in the season. Consider betting on teams with a strong ATS record if you believe the betting market has not properly adjusted. View more tips

Live Bet Sunday: Unless you really feel you need to get out of a bet, you don't have to attempt to hedge when the game isn't going as you predicted. Hedging is just raises the floor, but lowers the ceiling on you original investment. Unless you're confident that you're you're going to win your hedge, sometimes it's best to ride out the original bet. View more tips

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Matt Youmans: Colts -2.5 vs. Steelers. View more picks.

Dave Tuley: Broncos +8 vs. RavensView more picks.

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