Andrews: Inside the betting action for games in rest of NFL Week 15

December 17, 2022 01:47 AM
Buffalo_Bills_snow

We talked about this about a month ago as we started to get into the colder weather season. There are some games again in NFL Week 15 that could be impacted by weather but we've actually taken some bets Over the total as the forecast has improved in some cases.

The original numbers were shaded to the Under in case there was bad weather, but as the reports have improved, these Over bets could turn out to be good plays.

Backup quarterbacks and injury reports are once again heavy this particular week – and don't forget to take a look at the weather, too.

Here are the games presented in official Nevada rotation order (though we’re making an exception this week as the Giants-Commanders game was flexed to Sunday Night Football, so we’re moving it from the top of Sunday’s rotation to the SNF spot).

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 47.5)

We opened this game 4 and have not moved it. Really good two-way action for us on the game. I do see some 3.5s popping up but I won't be moving it until I get a bet. The ticket count is heavy on the Vikings, about 4-to-1. No real sharp play either way on this one. We opened the total 47.5, got bet Over and we went to 48.5. They bet me Under 48.5 and Under 48, so I am back to the opener at 47.5.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3, 37.5)

This is one of those 2.5/3 games. We opened 2.5, they laid 2.5, they took 3 – back and forth and that often happens to us because we do everything at 11-to-10 at South Point and do not move the juice. It's sharp play both ways, depending on the number – which has also made this one of our bigger handle games of the week. We did get some play on the Ravens’ money line at +145. It was a strong move from a sharp player, so I'm down to -150/+130 now on the money line. Lotta play on the total, too. We opened 37.5, and like I say, a little lower due to fear of bad weather. Our first bet was Under, so I went to 37. Then they bet us Over 37, Over 37.5 and I went to 38.5 where we are starting to get some play back on the Under.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7, 43)

We opened this game 8. Sharp money took the 8 and took the 7.5, so we are at 7 right now. The recreational bettors are definitely laying the 7 and I think we'll probably be back to 7.5 by game time. This is another weather game, so we opened it low at 42. First bet was Under 42, so we went to 41.5. Then they bet me Over 41.5, I went to 42, they bet me Over that, I went to 43, and they bet me Over that. Then they bet me Under 44 and we're back to 43. A lot of action on this total.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4, 43.5)

We opened this game 4. They're taking the 4 a little bit but honestly not much action on this game. The total is at 43.5, haven't moved it. It's like nobody knows they're playing the game.

Detroit Lions (-1.5, 43.5) at New York Jets

We opened it pick-’em. They bet me the Jets at pick, we went to -1, and they bet me the Jets again at -1. We were at Jets -1.5 on business when the announcement came in that Mike White is out and Zach Wilson will be the starting quarterback, so we went to the Lions -1.5. That's where we are right now and writing pretty even business. Little bit more public money on the Lions but nothing huge. We opened the total 44.5 and then with the news about Wilson, we dropped it to 43.5.

Kansas City Chiefs (-14, 49.5) at Houston Texans

We opened 14. Not much play here and no movement at all. We did do a little bit of business on the total, though. We opened 49, they bet me Over and I'm at 49.5.

Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 48.5) at Chicago Bears

We opened the Eagles -9.5. The sharp guys took the 9.5 and we are at 9 right now. The public is on the favorite. Nothing on the total. Opened 48.5 and haven't budged.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3, 37.5)

We opened the Panthers 2. They laid the 2, we went to 2.5, they laid the 2.5. We're at 3 now and they are starting to take back the 3. I have a feeling we'll be back to 2.5 before kickoff but there's that 2.5/3 thing again. The dance we do here at South Point. We opened the total 38.5, we got bet Under and we are now at 37.5.

Dallas Cowboys (-4, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

I opened the Cowboys 5. They took the 5, they took the 4.5, and we are at 4 right now. The public is a little more on the Cowboys than they are the Jaguars but nothing crazy. Jacksonville has been playing some pretty good ball as of late. The total is 47.5. Haven't budged.

Brett_Rypien

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-2, 36)

We opened the Broncos -2. They laid me the 2, they laid me the 2.5, I went to 3. And then with the Russell Wilson announcement on Friday, they beat me to it, taking the 3. I went to 2 on the business and the news but truly, I really figured Wilson was going to be out all week and with how he's been playing, is there really that much of an adjustment in going to Brett Rypien? I kind of like the Broncos this week. I'd lay the 2 if I was out there betting. We opened the total 39.5. They bet me Under and I went to 38. Then when the news came about Wilson, I went to 37. They bet me Under again and I'm at 36.

New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-1, 44.5)

Like the Lions and Jets, this is another one that has flipped favorites. We opened the Patriots -1. They took the Raiders plus the 1, they took the Raiders at pick. So we are now at Raiders -1 and writing even business. The total opened 44.5 and we haven't moved it.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 46.5)

We opened 3. They took it and we went to 2.5. They laid it back. Here we are once again with the same song and dance almost every week. We are at 3 flat right now. The public is on the Chargers. Sharper money is on the Titans +3 but I am still at 3 right now. I imagine I will be back at 2.5 at some point before kickoff. I opened the total 46, they bet me Over and I'm at 46.5. Like the Ravens-Browns game, this is another one of our bigger handle games because of the back and forth between 2.5 and 3.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 44.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I opened 3.5 and haven't moved it. Pretty good action. The public is definitely on the Bengals. I have a feeling we may get to 4 on this game. We haven't gotten there yet, but the public is pretty strong on the Bengals and I haven't seen any sharp money come in on the Bucs. We opened the total 44 and I got a little bump on the Over, so I'm at 44.5.

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-5, 40)

Good business here but we have not moved this number. I'm at 5, a somewhat dead number, but great two-way action here and have not moved it. No involvement yet from the wise guys and we're pretty dead even on everything: money, tickets, the whole ball of wax. Same thing on the total. Opened 40, haven't moved it, and there is good two-way action.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7, 39.5)

Can you believe this Rams team was in the Super Bowl last year? We opened the Packers -7.5, they took it and we're at 7. I don't blame 'em taking the points here. We were right in line with the market on the open, but I thought 7.5 was way too high. I don't see how the Packers could be laying over a touchdown to anybody. But now at 7, we are writing two-way business. The total is at 39.5 and we haven't moved it.

Chris Andrews is the Sportsbook Director at South Point Hotel in Las Vegas, a member of the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, and has been a Nevada bookmaker for over 40 years.

 

 

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