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NFL Week 17 Recap: Dogs go 9-7 ATS to cap off highly profitable regular season (55.2% ATS overall)

January 3, 2021 11:52 PM

The final Sunday of the NFL regular season didn't disappoint. It was a profitable day for bettors who put favorites into moneyline parlays, as Week 17 favorites went 14-2 straight up. However, dogs continued their season-long hot stretch, going 9-7 ATS. Much to the chagrin of sportsbooks, the public cleaned up on totals as overs went a blistering 10-6 on Sunday.

Here's the full list of the nine dog covers

-Bills (+ 3.5) beat Dolphins 56-26

-Giants (+ 1.5) beat Cowboys 23-19

-Steelers (+ 10) lost to Browns 24-22

-Lions (+ 3) lost to Vikings 37-35

-Jaguars (+ 15.5) lost to Colts 28-14

-Eagles (+ 6.5) lost to Washington 20-14

-Texans (+ 7) lost to Titans 41-38

-49ers (+ 7) lost to Seahawks 26-23

-Broncos (+ 3) lost to Raiders 32-31

The Washington Football Team won the NFC East and punched their ticket to the playoffs by beating the Eagles 20-14, although Philadelphia covered as 6.5-point home dogs. The Giants (+ 3 to + 1.5), Lions (+ 6.5 to + 3) and Texans (+ 7.5 to + 7) all received sharp reverse line movement and cashed for contrarians. The Bills (-5 to + 3.5) and Steelers (+ 6.5 to + 10) both covered as buy-low dogs receiving heavily inflated lines.

Here are the seven favorite covers

-Patriots (-3) beat Jets 28-14

-Buccaneers (-7) beat Falcons 44-27

-Ravens (-13.5) beat Bengals 38-3

-Packers (-4.5) beat Bears 35-16

-Saints (-6) beat Panthers 33-7

-Chargers (-6.5) beat Chiefs 38-21

-Rams (-1) beat Cardinals 18-7

The Rams came up huge for wiseguys, receiving heavy dog-to-favorite reverse line movement (+ 3 to -1) and winning easily. In the process, Los Angeles knocked Arizona out of the playoffs. The Packers were once again "steam killers" as pros bet the Bears down from + 6 to + 4.5. It didn't matter as Green Bay easily rolled and covered the chalk for the public.

With dogs going 9-7 ATS on Sunday, dogs cap off an incredibly profitable 2020 regular season. Through 256 games, dogs went 137-111-3 (55.2%), with five games closing at a pick'em.

Here are the top dog systems of 2020

-Divisional dogs: 55-41 ATS (57.3%)

-Dogs with a line move in their favor: 62-42 ATS (59.6%)

-Short road dogs + 6 or less: 51-33 ATS (60.7%)

-Primetime dogs: 31-20 ATS (60.8%)

Overs went 10-6 on Sunday to finish 126-125-2 on the season.

Here are the most profitable teams of 2020

-Bills 11-5 ATS

-Dolphins 11-5 ATS

-Steelers 10-6 ATS

-Ravens 10-6 ATS

-Packers 10-6 ATS

And the least profitable teams

-Cowboys 5-11 ATS

-Vikings 6-10 ATS

-Texans 6-10 ATS

-Browns 6-10 ATS

-Jets 6-10 ATS

-Eagles 6-10 ATS

Best Over teams

-Titans 12-3-1

-Raiders 12-3-1

-Vikings 11-4-1

-Bills 10-4-2

-Cowboys 10-6

-Lions 10-6

Best Under teams

-Giants 12-3-1

-Rams 12-4

-Cardinals 11-5

-Patriots 10-5-1

-Washington 10-5-1

Today a new week begins with 9 NBA games and 17 college basketball games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, here are the early lines for Wild Card Weekend...


Colts at Bills (-6.5), OU 52

Rams at Seahawks (-4.5), OU 42.5

Bucs (-7.5) at Washington, OU 47


Ravens (-3.5) at Titans, OU 54.5

Bears at Saints (-9.5), OU 47.5

Browns at Steelers (-3.5), OU 47

Be sure to keep track of all NFL playoff lines using our Free VSiN Live Odds page

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