NFL trends for Week 16

By Bruce Marshall  () 

HOUSTON at TAMPA BAY

The Texans are road warriors, 9-3-1 against the spread away since early 2018. Bucs have won last four SU but are 0-5 ATS at Tampa this year. Bucs also on 12-3 Over run since late 2018. Tech edge — Over and slight to Texans, based on totals and team trends.

 

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND

Bill Belichick is 29-3 SU last 32 in series, though the Bills have covered three of last five at Gillette Stadium. Bills on 10-4-1 spread uptick since late LY and 7-1-2 last 10 as dogs. Buffalo also Under 10-3 TY. Belichick Under 17-5 last 22 in regular season. Tech edge — Under and Bills, based on totals and recent trends.

 

LA RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO

Rams on 11-5 spread run in regular season since late 2018. Niners, however, 8-5-1 vs. spread TY and won 20-7 at Coliseum in October. Rams also Under 9-5 this season. Tech edge — Slight to 49ers and Under, based on team and totals trends.

 

DETROIT at DENVER

Matt Patricia is in trouble, with the Lions on 1-8 spread skid. Denver 7-3 last 10 vs. line and on 17-6 Under run. Tech edge — Broncos and Under, based on team and totals trends.

 

OAKLAND at LA CHARGERS

Last game in Carson. Chargers 4-10 vs. spread TY, 1-7 vs. spread last eight in Carson. Chargers had won and covered four in a row in series before losing Nov. 7 at Coliseum. Raiders have no covers in last five TY. Tech edge — Slight to Raiders, based on team trends.

 

JACKSONVILLE at ATLANTA

Jaguars only one win and cover in last six games. Matt Ryan and Falcons on 5-2 spread uptick. Tech edge — Falcons, based on recent trends.

 

NEW ORLEANS at TENNESSEE

Sean Payton has won and covered last five on road this year, and Saints now 12-3 vs. spread as visitors since LY. Titans 6-2 SU and vs. line since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB, also on 7-1 Over run. Tech edge — Over, based on totals trends.

 

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON

Giants have covered five of last six meetings, including Sept. 29 win at MetLife. NY 10-3 as a road dog since LY (4-2 TY). Skins no covers last three as chalk dating to 2018. Unders 5-1 last six meetings. Tech edge — Giants and Under, based on series and totals trends.

 

PITTSBURGH at NY JETS

Steelers on 8-3-1 spread run, 3-1-1 last five away. Mike Tomlin also Under 11-3 TY and 16-5 last 21 since late LY. Jets 3-2 vs. spread last five at MetLife. Tech edge — Steelers and Under, based on team and totals trends.

 

CINCINNATI at MIAMI

Bengals 8-2 vs. line last 10 as true visitors, Under 11-6-2 since late 2018. Tech edge — Under and Bengals, based on series and totals trends.

 

CAROLINA at INDIANAPOLIS

Panthers fading, 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 vs. line last six, no covers last four on road, also on 11-4 Over run. Still, Colts just 1-6 SU last seven after loss at New Orleans. Indy also Over 10-6 since late 2018. Tech edge — Colts and slight to Over, based on team and totals trends.

 

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND

Browns have covered last three in series, including 40-25 win Sept. 29 at M&T Bank Stadium. Cleveland also has won four in a row SU at home (3-0-1 vs. line those games). But Ravens have won 10 in a row SU since and covered seven of last eight. Tech edge — Slight to Ravens, based on recent trends.

 

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA

Eagles 11-21-1 vs. spread in regular season since late 2017, have also lost and failed to cover last four vs. Cowboys. Dallas struggling a bit but 5-3 ATS last eight. Tech edge — Slight to Cowboys, based on team trends.

 

ARIZONA at SEATTLE

Cardinals had covered last three and four of last five in series before loss Sept. 29. Seattle on 15-7 Over run. Tech edge — Over, based on totals trends.

 

KANSAS CITY at CHICAGO

Andy Reid is 5-2 vs. spread away this year. Bears only 2-8 ATS last 10. Chicago on 16-5 Under run since late 2018, Chiefs Under last four games. Tech edge — Under and slight to Chiefs, based on totals and team trends.

 

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA

NFC North series Under 4-1 in last five. Vikings 7-3 vs. spread last 10 at U.S. Bank Stadium, have won and covered last three as hosts vs. Packers. Tech edge — Vikings and slight to Under, based on team and totals trends.

 

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