NFL Thanksgiving Day Sharp Report

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Happy Thanksgiving! Today bettors have a trio of NFL games to get down on, plus a pair of College Football games and 20 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown of Tuesday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

Now let's discuss where the money is flowing for today's Turkey Day games...

 

12:30 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

The Bears (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost five straight games and just fell to the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens 16-13, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Lions (0-9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) are the only winless team in the NFL but have covered their last two games, most recently falling to the Browns 13-10 but covering as 13.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Chicago listed as a 3-point road favorite. We saw the line jump up to 3.5 and that's when a flood of sharp Lions money grabbed the hook, dropping it back down to the key number of 3. Many shops are juicing up the Lions 3 to -115, signaling a possible further drop down to 2.5. The Lions are also an ideal teaser candidate ( 2.5 to 8.5), which goes through the two kew numbers of 3 and 7. Conference dogs 7 or less are 52-29 ATS (64%) this season. Detroit also has value as a divisional dog (57% ATS the past two seasons). Sharps have also gotten down on the under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 41.5. Both teams are 7-3 to the under. Late season divisional unders (Week 11 or late) are roughly 56% the past decade. 

 

4:30 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys

The Raiders (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost three straight games and just fell to the Bengals 32-13, failing to cover as 2-point home dogs. Similarly, the Cowboys (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS) have dropped two of their last three and just lost to the Chiefs 19-9, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 7-point favorite. Respected money has laid the points, steaming Dallas up from -7 to -7.5. Some shops hit 8 and we saw some Raiders buyback, dropping it back down to 7.5. Thanksgiving Day favorites are roughly 70% ATS the last decade. Dallas also has value as a non-conference favorite with a high total (51). The Cowboys are a teaser candidate (-7.5 to -1.5), which goes through multiple key numbers. The total has ticked up slightly from 50.5 to 51.5. Non-conference unders are 36-17 (68%) this season. When the total is 50 or more, the under is 30-21 (59%). The Cowboys are 4-0 to the under their last four games. 

 

8:20 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints

The Bills (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are only 2-3 over their last five games and just got crushed by the Colts 41-15, losing outright as 7-point home favorites. The Saints (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) are also struggling, mired in a 3-game losing skid. New Orleans just got rolled by Philadelphia 40-29, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Bills, driving Buffalo up to the key number of -6. Some shops are even heading to 6.5. At this point, the Saints possess some buy-low inflated line value at 6.5. Sean Payton is 4-1 ATS as a dog this season and 45-26 ATS (63%) in his career. Primetime dogs are 22-11 ATS (67%) this season. Wiseguys also hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45. If the total is 45 or less, the under is 32-20 (62%) this season. This is also a non-conference under match (68%). 

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