Exceptional props for Super Bowl LVII

February 10, 2023 02:11 PM

How. Time. Flies! It seems like only yesterday I was taking a brief moment away from the design of the weekly VSiN Pro Matchups Guide and annual sport-specific betting guides to make my once-a-year appearance as a VSiN writer. But nearly one year removed from Aaron Donald’s Super Bowl 56 MVP award – just kidding, but seriously, is anyone else besides me still a little bitter about having to shred that ticket? – here we are on the doorstep of the big game and my fifth annual prop-a-palooza. Make no mistake, this 2,000-word dump of sports betting knowledge will not garner a Pulitzer Prize. It just might, however, give my handicapping mentor VSiN editor Steve Makinen a little run for his money and add a few shekels to your pocket.

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Without further ado, let’s look at what’s in store for Super Bowl 57.

The props I’ve outlined over the last four years have a record of 41-13 (75.9%, 21.7 units). After analyzing nearly 300 props for every Super Bowl since 2002, I’ve found 17 that fit my minimum exceptional rating of 500. What does ‘minimum exceptional rating’ mean? Let me break it down:

Step 1. Using an odds converter, I determine the implied odds of a prop based on the percentage of time the outcome has been correct or incorrect.

Step 2. I then determine the difference in the odds listed for the prop in the sportsbook and the implied odds calculated in Step 1.

For example:

The total number of players with a rush attempt have been less than 9.5 in 19 of the last 21 Super Bowls, or 90.48% of the time. Using the odds converter, this translates to implied odds of -950. This means I would expect to walk into a sportsbook and lay 9.5 units to win one unit that less than 9.5 players would have a rush attempt in the Super Bowl. When I reach the sportsbook, I see that I actually need to lay only 1.6 units, or moneyline odds of -160, to win one unit, and I’ve saved 7.9 units from what I expected to have to wager. This allows me to determine my rating by taking my -950 implied odds and subtracting the sportsbook’s moneyline odds of -160, giving me an exceptional rating of 790.

As you review these 17 props, keep a couple of things in mind:

• For each prop, I’ve labeled which sportsbook the odds came from. Most of these props are available at several books, but I chose the odds that provided the best value.
• These odds might have changed by the time you read this. As is the case for any game, event or prop, shop around to get the best price.
• Some books might write props a bit differently from what I’ve captured, but they are the same in the end. For example, one book might write: “What will be the first offensive play of the second half? Pass -110 or Run -110.” Another book might write: “Will the first play of the second half be a pass? Yes -110 or No -110.”

Finally, use the information in this article as an addition to your arsenal against the books this Super Bowl. Consider the tendencies of Kansas City and Philadelphia during the regular season and how these props might have played out had they been available all season long.

Expect the unexpected. Keep an open mind, and let the numbers, data and research be your guide.

Props With Exceptional Ratings

Prop: Will there be a kickoff returned for a touchdown? - YES

Result: 3 games (14%) yes, 18 games (86%) no

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: 600 yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: 3000 yes at DraftKings

My Rating: 2400

Prop: Will there be a successful onside kick? - YES

Result: 2 games (10%) yes, 19 game (90%) no

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: 950 yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: 2500 yes at DraftKings

My Rating: 1550

Prop: Will any player have 150 or more receiving yards? - NO

Result: 20 games (95%) no, 1 game (5%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -2001 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -505 no at Circa

My Rating: 1496

Prop: Will there be more than 2.5 rushing touchdowns? - NO

Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -155 no at DraftKings

My Rating: 795

Prop: Will there be more than 9.5 players with a rush attempt? - NO

Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -160 no at Caesars

My Rating: 790

Prop: Will the team that scores first win the game? - YES

Result: 19 games (90%) yes, 2 games (10%) no

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -210 yes at Caesars

My Rating: 740

Prop: Will there be a touchdown scored on 4th down? - NO

Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -320 no at Westgate

My Rating: 630

Prop: Will the game be decided by exactly four points? - YES

Result: 3 games (86%) yes, 18 games (14%) no

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: 600 yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: 1200 yes at Westgate

My Rating: 600

Prop: Will there be a safety? - YES

Result: 4 games (19%) yes, 17 games (81%) no

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: 425 yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: 1000 yes at Circa

My Rating: 575

Prop: Will there be a missed extra point? - NO

Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -375 no at BetMGM

My Rating: 575

Prop: Will both teams make two or more field goals? - NO

Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -390 no at DraftKings

My Rating: 560

Prop: Will both teams score on the first drive? - NO

Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -400 no at DraftKings

My Rating: 550

Prop: Will the first play from scrimmage result in a first down? - NO

Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -400 no at Caesars

My Rating: 550

Prop: Will the opening kickoff result in a touchback? - NO

Result: 18 games (86%) no, 3 games (14%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -600 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: 145 no at Caesars

My Rating: 545

Prop: Will each team have a touchdown and a field goal in the first half? - NO

Result: 19 games (90%) no, 2 games (10%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -950 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -450 no at DraftKings

My Rating: 500

Undefeated Props

Prop: Will the longest-made field goal in the game be greater than/over 54.5 yards? - NO

Result: 21 games (100%) no, 0 games (0%) yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -400 no at Caesars

Prop: Will the game be decided by exactly seven points? - NO

Result: 21 games (100%) no, 0 games (0%) yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -800 no at Caesars

In addition to the 17 props above that I will be playing on Sunday, the next 10 props also have a perfect or near-perfect record over the last 21 years. These, however, require a bit larger bankroll (laying greater than or equal to -1000 to win one unit).

Prop: Will the game be decided by exactly one point? - NO

Result: 21 games (100%) no, 0 games (0%) yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -5000 no at Westgate

Prop: Will the first play from scrimmage result in a sack? - NO

Result: 21 games (100%) no, 0 games (0%) yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -10000 no at DraftKings

Prop: Will the first play from scrimmage result in a touchdown? - NO

Result: 21 games (100%) no, 0 games (0%) yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -10000 no at DraftKings

Prop: Will there be a fumble into the end zone for a touchback? - NO

Result: 21 games (100%) no, 0 games (0%) yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -4200 no at Circa

Prop: Will the game be decided by exactly two points? - NO

Result: 21 games (100%) no, 0 games (0%) yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -3500 no at Westgate

Prop: Will the game be decided by exactly five points? - NO

Result: 21 games (100%) no, 0 games (0%) yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -3000 no at Westgate

Prop: Will each team have a touchdown and a field goal in both halves? - NO

Result: 21 games (100%) no, 0 games (0%) yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -2500 no at DraftKings

Prop: Will there be a punt return for a touchdown? - NO

Result: 21 games (100%) no, 0 games (0%) yes

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -2000 no at BetMGM

Prop: Will a quarterback have a reception? - NO

Result: 20 games (95%) no, 1 game (5%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -2001 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -1200 no at Caesars

My Rating: 801

Prop: Will teams combine for more than 1,000 net yards? - NO

Result: 20 games (95%) no, 1 game (5%) yes

Implied Odds Based on Historical Winning Percentage: -2001 no

2023 Moneyline for Prop: -1400 no at Caesars

My Rating: 601

Near-Miss Props

Other high-win percentage props since 2002 that were considered but had a lower exceptional rating than 500 include:

95 %

-    Will there be overtime? – No

-    Will the first play from scrimmage result in a turnover? – No

-    Will there be a blocked punt? – No

90 %

-    Will the game be decided by exactly six points? – No

-    Will both teams have exactly a 1-yard touchdown? – No

-    Will a quarterback throw for three or more interceptions? – No

-    Will both teams score in every quarter? – No

-    Will a defensive player have 2 or more interceptions? – No

-    Will there be a kickoff out of bounds? – No

-    Will there be a safety in the second half? – No

-    Will there be a lead change in the first quarter? – No

-    Will both teams score 30 points? – No

85 %

-    Will there be more than 2.5 players with a pass completion? – No

-    Will either team score a touchdown on its first drive? – No

-    Will there be a lead change in the final minute of the 4th quarter? – No

-    Will any player have a 60 yard reception? – No

-    Will both teams have a passing touchdown? – Yes

-    Will both teams score 10 points? - Yes

80 %

-    Will the first turnover be an interception? – Yes

-    Will the longest field goal be over 47.5 yards? – No

-    Will there be more than 4.5 kickoff returns? – Yes

-    Will there be four or more consecutive scores by one team? – No

-    Will there be more touchdowns than field goals? – Yes

-    Will there be a kickoff or punt return for a touchdown? – No

-    Will the distance of the first missed field goal be over 46.5 yards? – No

-    Will there be over 38.5 net yards on the opening drive? – No

-    Will the first punt result in a fair catch? - No

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