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NFL Round 1 Grade Card

April 30, 2021 01:33 AM

The First Round of the 2021 NFL Draft saw quarterbacks go 1-2-3. As we expected, the Jags selected Trevor Lawrence 1st overall (-10000 at BetMGM) and the Jets took Zach Wilson 2nd (-2500). The story of the night was the 49ers drafting Trey Lance third overall. The betting market for the third overall pick received massive, drastic line movement over the 24 hours leading up to the draft. Mac Jones entered Draft Day a  -225 favorite to go third overall but fell to a + 170 dog throughout the day. On the flip side, Lance entered the day + 240 and moved to a -175 favorite. In the end, the Draft Day steam was correct and the 49ers went with Lance. Bettors should file this episode away moving forward. Simply put, pay attention to late movement. It is incredibly meaningful as it comes when limits are raised and Draft Day decisions are leaking out. If you do your homework and react before the books adjust, you can really take advantage. 

Here are the Round 1 winning positional prop bets (BetMGM)

Under 18.5 Offensive Players (18)

Over 13.5 Defensive Players (14)

Under 5.5 Quarterbacks (5)

Over 1.5 Running Backs (2)

Over 4.5 Wide Receivers (5)

Under 1.5 Tight End (1)

Over 4.5 Linebackers (5)

Under 6.5 Offensive Linemen (5)

Under 4.5 Defensive Linemen (4)

Over 4.5 Cornerbacks (5)

Under 0.5 Safety (0)

More props that cashed

Waddle to be selected before Smith (-167)

Pitts first non-QB to be drafted + 120

Harris to be selected before Etienne -250

Chase Under 5.5 (5)

Waddle Under 10.5 (6)

Smith Under 11.5 (10)

Horn Under 12.5 (8)

Parsons Under 13.5 (12)

Fields Over 7.5 (11)

Sewell Over 6.5 (7)

Surtain Under 10.5 (9)

Collins Under 24.5 (16)

Harris Under 24.5 (24)

Paye Over 17.5 (21)

Phillips Under 19.5 (18)

Darrisaw Over 15.5 (23)

Vera-Tucker Under 15.5 (14)

Slater Over 9.5 (13)

Now it's on to Fade the Public Friday where we have a loaded betting menu filled with 15 MLB games, 8 NBA games and 4 NHL games. For an updated breakdown of Friday's action, including the top line moves, systems plays and sharp contrarian bets, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 1 p.m. ET. I will also be joining Patrick Meagher and Michael Lombardi on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update. 

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games receiving notable sharp action today...

7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (11-14) at Cincinnati Reds (11-13)

This is the first game of a three-game series between the two NL Central rivals. The Cubs just beat the Braves 9-3 on Thursday, cashing as + 120 road dogs. The win snapped a five-game losing skid for Chicago, Meanwhile, the Reds are just 2-8 over their past ten games, although they did just take two of three on the road against the Dodgers. Tonight, the Cubs hand the ball to righty Jake Arrieta (3-2, 2.57 ERA) while the Reds counter with lefty Wade Miley (2-2, 2.45 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as -120 home favorites and the Cubs a + 110 road dog. We've seen respected money jump on the Cubs getting plus money, which has dropped Chicago from + 110 to + 101. The Cubs have value as a dog off a win and a dog with a line move in their favor. Road dogs are 15% ROI this season. The Cubs are also a divisional dog with a high total (9). Historically, high totals have benefited dogs as the more expected runs scored leads to more variance and upset opportunities. The Cubs have owned lefties this season, going a perfect 6-0. 

8:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (15-8) at Minnesota Twins (8-15)

These two AL Central foes are trending in completely opposite directions. The Royals are 6-1 over their last seven games while the Twins are just 2-8 over their last ten games. In tonight's series opener, the Royals start righty Brady Singer (1-2, 2.95 ERA) and the Twins send out vetern Michael Pineda (1-1, 2.42 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -130 home favorite and the Royals a + 120 road dog. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. If Kansas City has the far better record, then why is Minnesota favored. The public is rushing to the window to grab the plus money with the "superior" Royals, yet we've seen this line move further to Minnesota (-130 to -140). This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" contrarian favorite money on the Twins. 

8:10 p.m ET: Cleveland Indians (11-12) at Chicago White Sox (14-10)

Both of these AL Central rivals enter this three-game series on a positive note. The Indians have won three of their last four games while the White Sox are 8-2 over their last ten games. Tonight, the Indians start ace and reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber (2-2, 2.48 ERA) and the White Sox counter with lefty veteran Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 4.32 ERA). This line opened with the Indians listed as -140 road favorites and the White Sox a + 130 home dog. The public is running as fast as they can to lay the chalk with Bieber and the Tribe. However, despite this lopsided support the Indians have fallen from -140 to -130. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the White Sox, with pros biting on the home dog at plus money (+ 130 to + 120). This White Sox have value as a dog off a win, a divisional dog, a dog with a line move in their favor and a home dog who made the playoffs the previous season. We've also seen some over money hit this total. It opened at a low 6.5 but the over is juiced up to -120. Some shops are flirting with a move up to 7. The White Sox will lean on their bats in this one. Chicago is hitting .261, which ranks 3rd-best in MLB. The Tribe are hitting .209, which ranks 3rd-worst in MLB. 

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