NFL Preseason Unders Dominate, plus Saturday MLB Sharp Report

August 14, 2021 01:04 AM

NFL Preseason unders went a perfect 3-0 on Friday night, running their record to 5-1 to start the preseason. Historically, preseason has been an excellent time to bet unders. Between the conservative play calling, vanilla offenses and countless first string starters resting, we tend to see lower scoring games. Since 2014, the under is now 222-164 (57.5%) in the preseason. If the total is 37 or higher, the under improves to 178-114 (61%). Today we have 10 more NFL preseason games to get down on.

Here are the "Under 37" system matches for today

Dolphins-Bears Under 37

Browns-Jaguars Under 37

Chiefs-49ers Under 38

Seahawks-Raiders Under 37

More Saturday Line Moves

Broncos + 1.5 to -2.5 at Vikings

Jags + 4 to -2.5 vs Browns

Jets + 1.5 to -2.5 at Giants

Raiders -1.5 to -2.5 vs Seahawks

Chargers -2 to -3.5 at Rams

For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Patrick Meagher, Michael Lombardi and myself LIVE this morning on The Lombardi Line from 10 a.m. ET to 12-noon. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves across the marketplace. We'll also check in with our friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for three MLB games today.

7:05 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics (67-49) at Texas Rangers (41-75)

The Rangers stole Friday night's series opener 8-6, cashing as + 145 home dogs. In tonight's rematch, Oakland hands the ball to righty James Kaprielian (6-4, 3.22 ERA) and Texas counters with fellow righty Jordan Lyles (5-9, 5.46 ERA). This line opened with the Athletics listed as a hefty -180 road favorite and the Rangers a + 165 home dog. Sharps aren't scared off by the big chalk and have steamed the A's up from -180 to -200. Favorites -200 or more are 154-62 (71.3%) this season. Favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 428-267 (61.6%). Oakland is 51-30 as a favorite. Texas is 32-63 as a dog. The A's are 40-33 against righties. The Rangers are 21-51 against righties. Oakland will lean on their bats in this one. The A's are hitting .327, which ranks 20th in MLB. The Rangers are hitting .221, which ranks 30th and dead-last. Oakland is + 80 in run differential. Texas is -140. The A's are 8-6 against the Rangers. We could be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible drop to 8.5. 

7:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (59-56) at Kansas City Royals (49-65)

The Cardinals blanked the Royals 6-0 in last night's opener, winning as -135 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, St. Louis starts veteran lefty Jon Lester (3-6, 5.57ERA) and Kansas City trots out righty Brad Keller (7-11, 5.79 ERA). This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a short -115 road favorite and the Royals a + 105 home dog. The public is happy to lay the short number with the Cardinals, who have now won four straight and six of their last seven. However, despite this lopsided betting, the Cardinals have fallen from -115 to -108. This signals some wiseguy money backing the Royals (+ 105 to -106), which has basically turned the game into a pick'em. Interleague home teams with a line move in their favor are 82-58 (58.6%) this season. The Royals have value as a dog with a high total (10). The more expected runs scored, the more variance and upset opportunities. The Royals are 19-16 against lefties like Lester (but only 30-49 against righties). Pros are also leaning on the under. The total is 10 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall to 9.5. The forecast calls for low 80s with 7-10 MPH winds blowing in from right center. The under is 3-1 between these teams this season. 

9:07 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (69-46) at Los Angeles Angels (58-59)

The Astros took care of business in Friday's opener, edging the Angels 4-1 as -135 road favorites. In tonight's rematch, Houston gives the ball to righty Luis Garcia (8-6, 3.29 ERA) and Los Angeles taps fellow righty Jaime Barria (2-0, 4.21 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a -150 road favorite and the Angels a + 140 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're riding the Astros, steaming Houston up from -150 to -177. Teams off a win receiving 15-cents of steam or more are 200-134 (59.95%) this season. The Astros have dominated AL West opponents, going 31-14 (68.9%) in the division. Houston is 55-33 as a favorite. The Angels are 26-32 as a dog. The Astros are 43-28 against righties. The Angels are 37-40 against righties. Houston is 7-3 against Los Angeles this season. There appears to be some liability on a lower scoring game. The total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on

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