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NFL Preseason Unders Continue to Dominate, plus Saturday Preseason Week 2 Sharp Report

August 21, 2021 02:17 AM

NFL preseason unders continued their epic hot streak on Friday night, going a perfect 2-0. Unders are now 17-3 (85%) this preseason. While no system can be expected to cash consistently at 85%, unders have historically been a smart bet this time of year. With teams resting starters, conservative play-calling and vanilla offenses, we tend to see lower scoring games. Since 2014, preseason unders are now 234-166 (59%). The top preseason under trend is targeting high totals. When the total is 37 or more, the under is 8-0 this preseason and 183-114 (62%) since 2014.

Today we have 10 more NFL preseason games to get down on. Can the under streak continue? 

For extensive Saturday betting analysis be sure to join Patrick Meagher, Michael Lombardi and myself LIVE this morning on The Lombardi Line from 10 a.m. ET to 12-noon. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and updating the top lines moves across the marketplace. We'll also check in with our friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL preseason games today...

4:25 p.m. ET: New York Jets at Green Bay Packers

The Jets (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) took care of business in their preseason opener, beating the cross town rival Giants 12-7 and covering as 1.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) fell to the Texans 26-7 in Week 1, losing straight up as 3-point home favorites. This non-conference showdown opened with Green Bay listed as a short 2.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have pounced on the Jets, flipping New York from + 2.5 to -2.5. The Jets are in a classic sharp "dog to favorite" spot. This move to New York came on the heels of the news that Green Bay is unlikely to play quarterback Jordan Love due to a shoulder injury. With Love hurt and Green Bay sitting Aaron Rodgers, the Packers only have two healthy quarterbacks for today's game: Kurt Benkert and Jake Dolegala. Sharps have placed an "information based" bet on the Jets as a result. For those who missed the early number on the Jets but still want to follow the sharp move, a moneyline play on New York (-145) may be more appetizing than laying an inflated number. We've also seen pros hit this under, dropping the total from 34 to 31.5. Preseason unders that fall at least a point are 70-50 (58%) since 2014.

7:30 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

The Titans (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) dominated the Falcons 23-3 in last week's preseason opener, easily covering as 1-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Bucs (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) fell to the lowly Bengals 19-14, losing straight up as 6-point home favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite. Bucs head coach Bruce Arians announced that Tom Brady is unlikely to play. Arians added "We probably won't play any starters." Following this news, wiseguys have hammered Tennessee plus the points, moving the Titans from + 3 to + 1. Some books are even falling to a pick'em. Preseason dogs with line moves in their favor are 66-46 ATS (59%) since 2014. Pros have also targeted the under with Tampa resting their offensive firepower, dropping the total from 37 to 35. 

 

10 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks 

The Broncos (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) looked impressive in their preseason opener, crushing the Vikings 33-6 as 1.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (0-1 SU. 0-1 ATS) got throttled by the Raiders 20-7, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Denver listed as a short 2.5-point road favorite. Sharps have rushed to the window to lay the points with the Broncos, driving Denver up from -2.5 to -5. Preseason teams with a line move in their favor who missed the playoffs the previous year against teams who made the playoffs are 84-70 ATS (55%) the last decade. One reason to lean toward Denver: the QB competition. With Drew Lock competing with Teddy Bridgewater, both quarterbacks are expected to play several series and both are incentivized to play well and score points in order to win the job. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll hasn't announced whether he'll play Russell Wilson and other key starters (Wilson sat out the preseason opener). The total is 37.5, which puts it above the "magic number." Totals of 37 or higher as 8-0 to the under this preseason and 62% since 2014. 

More Saturday Line Moves

Raiders -3 to -6.5 at Rams

Raiders-Rams under 37 to 35

Vikings pick'em to -2 vs Colts

Dolphins -3 to -5 vs Falcons

Falcons-Dolphins Under 37 to 36

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on

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