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NFL POST-BYE WEEK TRENDS & SYSTEMS

By Steve Makinen  () 

Two weeks ago in the Point Spread Weekly, I introduced the first of a two part series analyzing trends and systems surrounding the bye week in the NFL. That piece dealt with the PRE-BYE WEEK data. In this follow-up piece,

I will be dealing with the POST-BYE WEEK analysis.

This week presents the first opportunity to wager on teams coming out of their bye week. There were two teams off last week, the Jets & 49ers. You’ll want to look at their team trends specifically for this weekend’s games, and then hang on to this piece for future reference.

I always reason that the bye week is one of the most impactful variables on each team’s schedule for the season. Essentially, the bye week breaks up the routine in the NFL, and professional athletes’ performances can vary greatly when there are breaks in routine. These variances naturally offer up great wagering opportunities. Where the bye is placed and how the teams react in and out of that off week can often make the difference of one or two wins. That, of course, can affect whether or not a team makes the playoffs.

Clearly, the three-week period involving a team’s bye week (in, off, out) is huge. So let’s get to the data, first a group of league-wide systems you’ll want to digest, and second, team-by-team post-bye week trends, along with their scheduled post-bye week game for 2019.

Post-bye Week System #1

Play on ROAD FAVORITES coming out of their bye week. (Record: 78-42-2 ATS since ’99, 65%, 32.0 Units, 26.7% R.O.I., Grade 75) 2019 Potential Plays: 11/4 Dallas, 11/10 LA Rams, 11/17 New England, 11/24 Green Bay, 12/1 LA Chargers

Post-bye Week System #2

Play on ROAD FAVORITES coming out of their bye week against non-conference opponents. (Record: 26-9-1 ATS since ’99, 74.3%, 16.2 Units, 46.3% R.O.I., Grade 70)

2019 Potential Plays: 11/10 LA Rams, 11/17 New England

Post-bye Week System #3

Play on ROAD FAVORITES coming out of their bye week against divisional opponents. (Record: 30-11 ATS since ’00, 73.2%, 17.9 Units, 43.6% R.O.I., Grade 70)

2019 Potential Plays: 11/4 Dallas, 12/1 LA Chargers

Post-bye Week System #4

Play AGAINST TEAMS coming off their bye week when playing at home on Monday night against a division opponent. (Record: 17-6 SU

ATS since ’92, 73.9%, 10.4 Units, 45.2%

R.O.I., Grade 65) 2019 Plays: NONE

Post-bye Week System #5

Play UNDER the total in games involving a line of 3.5 points or less coming out of its bye week in a divisional game. (Record: 36-21 since ’93, 63.2%, 12.9 Units, 22.6% R.O.I., Grade 59) 2019 Potential Plays: 10/20 Indianapolis, 11/4 Dallas, 11/17 Jacksonville, 11/24 Tennessee, 12/1 LA Chargers

Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Arizona Cardinals (post-bye week game - 12/1 vs. LA Rams)

Arizona is on a 3-1 SU & ATS run in its L4 post-bye week games

The Cardinals are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their L9 post-bye divisional games

Atlanta Falcons (post-bye week game - 11/10 at New Orleans)

Atlanta is on a 5-game SU & ATS winning streak in post-bye week road games, scoring 34.2 PPG

The Falcons are on a 9-3 ATS run in post-bye week games vs. divisional foes

Baltimore Ravens (post-bye week game - 11/3 vs. New England)

Baltimore is 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in 11 post-bye week games under John Harbaugh

The Ravens are also 8-3 UNDER the total in post-bye week games in the Harbaugh era Buffalo Bills (post-bye week game - 10/20 vs. Miami)

While Buffalo has struggled in pre-bye week games, it is on a 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS run in post-bye week games

 

The Bills boast an 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS record in post-bye week games at home since ‘06

Carolina Panthers (post-bye week game - 10/27 at San Francisco)

Carolina has won four straight post-bye week games (3-1 ATS), all by 10 points or less

The L5 Panthers’ post-bye week games went

OVER the total

Chicago Bears (post-bye week game - 10/20 vs. New Orleans)

Chicago has lost its L5 post-bye week games SU & ATS, losing by 16 PPG

The Bears are just 3-4 SU & 1-6 ATS in their L7 post-bye week games at home

Cincinnati Bengals (post-bye week game - 11/10 vs. Baltimore)

The Bengals were 5-10-1 SU & 6-10 ATS in post-bye week games under Marvin Lewis

Cincinnati is on a 5-game ATS (4-1 SU) winning streak in post-bye week games at home versus divisional rivals

Cleveland Browns (post-bye week game - 10/27 at New England)

Cleveland is just 2-6 SU & 1-6-1 ATS in its L8 post-bye week games

The Browns are on a 5-1 OVER the total surge in post-bye week games, combined score 54.6 PPG

Dallas Cowboys (post-bye week game - MON 11/4 at NY Giants)

Dallas is on an 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS run in post-bye week road games

The Cowboys are on an extended surge of 12-2 OVER the total in post-bye week games

Denver Broncos (post-bye week game - 11/17 at Minnesota)

Denver owns an impressive 22-7 SU & 21-7-1

ATS post-bye week record since ‘92

The Broncos are on a 7-1 SU & ATS surge in post-bye week road games and are 4-0 UNDER in the L4

Detroit Lions (post-bye week game - MON 10/14 at Green Bay)

Detroit is 6-1 SU & ATS in post-bye week games since 2012

The Lions have won four straight post-bye week road games, including an 18-16 decision at Green Bay in 2015

Green Bay Packers (post-bye week game - 11/24 at San Francisco)

• Green Bay is on a 9-3 UNDER the total run in post-bye week games, yielding just 18.3 PPG

The Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their L8 post-bye week road games

Houston Texans (post-bye week game - 11/17 at Baltimore)

Houston is 4-1 SU & ATS in post-bye week games under Bill O’Brien

The Texans are 5-1 SU & ATS in their L6 post-bye week road games

Indianapolis Colts (post-bye week game - 10/20 vs. Houston)

Indianapolis, who was also a strong pre-bye week team, has been potent in post-bye games, going 15-6 SU & 11-7-1 ATS since 2000

The Colts are just 4-6-1 ATS in their L11 post-bye week home games

Jacksonville Jaguars (post-bye week game - 11/17 at Indianapolis)

Jacksonville is on a 7-1-1 ATS surge in its L9 post-bye week games

The Jaguars are 5-1-1 ATS in their L7 post-bye week road games

Kansas City Chiefs (post-bye week game - 12/1 vs. Oakland)

Head coach Andy Reid’s teams are 18-3 SU & 14-7 ATS in post-bye week games, as well as 15-5-1 UNDER the total

The Chiefs have won four straight post-bye week games (3-1 ATS) vs. division opponents, scoring 29.5 PPG

Los Angeles Chargers (post-bye week game - 12/1 at Denver)

The Chargers have won three straight post-bye week games ATS, all on the road

The Chargers are 10-3 UNDER the total in their L13 post-bye week games, allowing just 18.2 PPG

Los Angeles Rams (post-bye week game - 11/10 at Pittsburgh)

The Rams are on a 9-2-1 ATS run in their L12 post-bye week games

Under Sean McVay, the Rams have won their two post-bye week games by a margin of 81-33.

Miami Dolphins (post-bye week game - 10/13 vs. Washington)

Miami is on a 3-1 & 3-0-1 ATS run in post-bye week games

The Dolphins are just 2-6-2 ATS in their L10 post-bye week home games

Minnesota Vikings (post-bye week game - MON 12/2 at Seattle)

For as good as the Vikings were in pre-bye week games, they are just 2-7 SU & ATS in their L9 post-bye week games

The Vikings are 1-6 SU & ATS in their L7 post-bye week road games, outscored 28.4-16.8

New England Patriots (post-bye week game - 11/17 at Philadelphia)

The Patriots are 9-2 SU & ATS in post-bye week road games under Bill Belichick

New England is 6-3 OVER the total in its L9 post-bye week games vs. NFC opponents

New Orleans Saints (post-bye week game - 11/10 vs. Atlanta)

New Orleans is on a 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS run in post-bye week games

The Saints have gone OVER the total in nine of their L11 post-bye week games, scoring 33.4 PPG

New Orleans has won SU & ATS in six straight post-bye week home games, scoring 43.2 PPG!

New York Giants (post-bye week game - 11/24 at Chicago)

The Giants are on a 9-3 OVER the total run in post-bye week games

However, in post-bye week ROAD games, the Giants are on an 8-2 UNDER the total run

New York Jets (post-bye week game - 10/6 at Philadelphia)

The Jets are just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their L10 post-bye week games

The Jets are 5-1 UNDER the total in their L6 post-bye week road games, combined score 32.3 PPG

Oakland Raiders (post-bye week game - 10/20 at Green Bay)

Oakland has lost back-to-back post-bye week games SU & ATS after going 5-0 ATS prior

Head Coach John Gruden’s teams are 3-1 SU

& ATS in four post-bye week games vs. non-conference foes

Philadelphia Eagles (post-bye week game - 11/17 vs. New England)

Philadelphia is 12-5 UNDER the total in its L17 post-bye week home games

The Eagles are on a 4-1 UDNER the total run in post-bye week games vs. AFC foes Pittsburgh Steelers (post-bye week game - MON 10/28 vs. Miami)

The Steelers are just 2-6 ATS in their L8 post-bye week games

Pittsburgh is 5-1 OVER the total in its L6 post-bye week games at home

San Francisco 49ers (post-bye week game - MON 10/7 vs. Cleveland)

San Francisco is on a 0-6-1 SU & 0-7 ATS slide in post-bye week games

The 49ers have lost five straight post-bye week home games against the spread (0-4-1 SU), scoring just 15.8 PPG

Seattle Seahawks (post-bye week game - 11/24 at Philadelphia)

Seattle is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its L6 post-bye week games overall

The Seahawks are on a 4-1 UNDER the total run in post-bye week road games, allowing just 13.6 PPG

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (post-bye week game - 10/27 at Tennessee)

Tampa Bay is on a 10-2 OVER the total run in post-bye week road games

The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their L7 post-bye week road games

Tennessee Titans (post-bye week game - 11/24 vs. Jacksonville)

The Titans have won three straight post-bye week games while going 2-0-1 ATS

Tennessee is 4-1 OVER the total in its L5 post-bye week home games against divisional opponents

Washington Redskins (post-bye week game - 11/17 vs. NY Jets)

Washington is just 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS in its L12 post-bye week games

The Redskins are on a 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS run as a post-bye week home favorite

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