Monday Wild Card Sharp Report: Cowboys at Bucs

January 15, 2023 11:26 PM

Wake up with VSiN Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for tonight's final Wild Card round matchup...


8:15 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 45.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Cowboys (12-5) are the 5-seed and went 2-2 down the stretch. Dallas just fell to the Commanders 26-6, losing outright as 7.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Bucs (8-9) are the 4-seed and just saw their two-game winning streak snapped, falling to the Falcons 30-17 and failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. 

This line opened with the Cowboys listed as a 3-point road favorite. Early in the week, we saw the line fall from Dallas -3 to -2.5, signaling respected money grabbing the points with Tampa Bay at home. However, over the weekend we've seen some buyback on Dallas, with the Cowboys -2.5 being juiced up to -115. Some books are trending back toward Dallas -3. The public is split right down the middle, with 50% of bets on both sides

The Bucs match several profitable betting systems. Wild Card dogs are 20-9 ATS (69%) over the past five postseasons, including 4-1 ATS so far this postseason. Tampa Bay also has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (4-12-1) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (10-7). The Bucs are also in a prime teaser spot (+2.5 to +8.5), passing through multiple key numbers. 

The total has ticked up slightly from 45 to 45.5, indicating some respected over money. Currently 59% of bets are backing the over. Both of these teams are ranked in the top 10 in pace, with the Bucs 1st and Cowboys 9th. Tampa Bay is 4-1 to the over in their last five games. Dallas is 5-2 to the over in their last seven games. The over is a perfect 5-0 so far this postseason. The forecast calls for mid 50s with clear skies and mild 2-3 MPH winds. Tampa Bay beat Dallas 19-3 back in Week 1. 

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